#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The latest US employment data has been released—50,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%. This set of data directly influences market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future policies, with the current probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged reaching 97%. In simple terms, the expectation of rate cuts in the short term has been further diminished.

On the BTC side, the movements are quite clear. Recently, it broke through a three-month descending trendline and is now firmly above $90,000. The spot trading volume exceeds $39 billion per day, indicating strong popularity. From the weekly chart, the RSI indicator shows sufficient upward momentum. If this week's close can stay above $93,500, this breakout can be considered confirmed as effective. Once confirmed, the next key levels to watch are the 50-week EMA at $96,000 and the 21-week EMA at $101,000, both of which could serve as resistance or support.

On-chain data also provides an interesting signal—whales are rapidly closing long positions. Historically, such position restructuring has often been accompanied by significant volatility. An extreme example is a similar pattern that once generated a 50% increase within 43 days. Therefore, it is crucial to pay attention to the potential amplification of volatility caused by this wave of position changes, as being inattentive could easily lead to being shaken out.