#期权交割事件 The $23.6 billion options settlement has come to fruition. This number may seem ordinary, but for those who have experienced multiple cycles, it carries extraordinary significance.

Remember the frenzy of 2017? At that time, we witnessed a rally in the spot market, with price discovery driven entirely by panic and greed. By 2021, the derivatives market had matured, with increasing volumes in options and futures, but we had not yet fully realized how strong the "pinning" effect of these tools on prices could be.

Looking back at this event now, the unwinding of the warehouse effect actually reflects a sign of market maturity. The hedge activities over the past few weeks mechanically suppressed upward momentum, which is not a bad thing; instead, it indicates that the liquidity of the derivatives market has been deeply integrated into the ecosystem. What truly deserves attention is—when this $23.6 billion hedging demand dissipates and the price discovery mechanism returns to supply and demand itself, we can see the true market attitude.

On a macro level, the signals are even more intriguing. M2 has been expanding for 21 consecutive months, and real M2 continues to rise. This long-term environment of liquidity easing has historically always created new growth space for asset prices. The patterns in early 2016, mid-2020, and late 2023 are repeating. It’s not a coincidence; it’s a rule.

This time, we are not fooled by prices suppressed by derivatives, but returning to a more fundamental question—the issuance of fiat currency has not stopped, and this is the underlying logic.