#比特币价格走势 After reading Pompliano's latest insights, it's quite interesting. He suggests that the probability of a significant Bitcoin decline in Q1 next year is very low. The core logic is that volatility has already been compressed; a 70-80% crash would be considered extraordinary.

Thinking it through carefully, he's right. The expected crazy surge didn't happen at the end of this year, which actually helped us avoid over-leveraging. In the long term, Bitcoin has increased nearly 300% over the past three years, and doubling in two years isn't bad at all. The problem is that many people are only focused on the $250,000 target not being reached, and short-term disappointment has overshadowed the fundamentals' stability.

The decline in volatility has been seriously underestimated. Not seeing the crazy rise expected in Q4 or a crash, in fact, the market is gradually becoming more rational. This is actually good news for long-term holders. The risks in Q1 next year are indeed not as terrifying as everyone thinks.