#期权交割事件 The notional value of $23.7 billion in options will settle at 16:00, and this scale is indeed in place. Past "epic" delivery days have shown that the probability of a one-sided trend accelerating after settlement is quite high, and increased volatility is a fundamental factor.

The key is how to adjust the follow strategy at this point. My observation is: aggressive traders tend to leverage up to bet on the direction, which can lead to explosive gains or direct liquidation. Conservative traders will control their positions or even stay flat and observe; while this is safer, they may easily miss the market opportunity.

Experience tells me that this high-risk timing tests the effectiveness of position-splitting strategies. Consider reducing the proportion of follow trades with aggressive traders, and pay attention to those experts who are good at capturing rhythm during oscillations—usually, their performance around major events is more stable. Stop-loss settings should also be tighter, as the $23.7 billion scale is enough to create liquidity traps.

The two hours before and after the settlement are the most sensitive window. Monitoring the position changes of follow targets in real-time is more effective than any analysis. This is not about predicting the market, but about following excellent people to find certainty amid uncertainty—practice makes perfect.