#美国贸易赤字状况 U.S. October trade deficit falls below $300 billion, a 39% month-on-month plunge, hitting a 15-year low — it looks impressive, with exports up 2.6% and imports down 3.2%, the data is indeed good. But peeling back the curtain reveals that the truth isn't that simple.

A sudden surge in gold exports is one of the main drivers. As pharmaceutical companies see the threat of tariffs, they quickly cut import orders. Together, these factors have artificially pulled down the overall trade deficit. It sounds like the economy is turning better, but in reality, it's just policy expectations at play — short-term reactions, not genuine improvements in fundamentals.

More realistically, looking at the full year, the U.S. trade deficit still hovers at a historically high level. This wave of data is somewhat abnormally impressive. Rather than a trend reversal, it's better understood as short-term fluctuations caused by policy interference — easily reversed by a gust of wind. For traders, it's crucial to understand the underlying logic and not be misled by surface numbers.