2026-01-10 07:20:18

#美国贸易赤字状况 $BTC is currently stuck at a critical resistance level, which was actually anticipated. The range from 0.65 to 0.75 signifies an additional release of about 10% of trapped positions. Retail investors are now cautious, and a few waves of selling pressure are not surprising.

Over the past month, I have been tracking on-chain data—chip distribution, whale wallet movements, signs of long-term holders fleeing, contract funding rates, and market sentiment temperature in options. Overall, it feels like this wave of panic is gradually easing. However, one phenomenon worries me: the $BTC balance on a major exchange.

From December 10 to 29 last year, the $BTC on the exchange increased steadily. The pattern over the past two years is clear—whenever the exchange's $BTC balance grows, the price tends to weaken. This is essentially an early warning sign of selling pressure within the market.

Fortunately, after January, the balance started to decline, and $BTC rebounded accordingly. But whether it can truly break through the resistance level depends on the buying momentum—whether enough incremental funds can absorb the selling pressure on the exchange, meaning the demand to transfer coins out of the platform must be met. This is not the only factor, but it is definitely a necessary condition.

Let's also look at the real movements of large funds. On-chain transfers over $1 million are represented with yellow for amounts between $1 million and $10 million, and red for over $10 million whales. In mid-April last year, large funds collectively moved out, causing $BTC to jump from 85,000 to 95,000, with million-level whales being the main drivers. Now, large funds are also transferring out, but the scale is much smaller than last year. From this perspective, the buying power at this stage is not strong enough to trigger a rapid reversal like last year. It is more likely to be a slow recovery with two steps forward and one step back, requiring more time to accumulate energy, and perhaps external stimuli to provide additional support.

BTC0,04%

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 23h ago

Exchanges' outflows are a good sign, but this round of big funds isn't as aggressive as last year. Looks like we still need to wait. --- With the pattern of two in, one out, I really don't think the break is coming so soon. --- Even million-level big investors haven't really entered, retail investors still dare to buy the dip? That's hilarious. --- On-chain data shows that selling pressure is easing, but buy orders are still weak. --- Waiting for external stimuli? Might as well wait forever, everyone. --- Basically, there's no new capital inflow; it's just a bunch of people buying and selling among themselves. --- Last year, big funds surged to 95,000; now it's less than half that size... Think about what that means yourself.

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rekt_but_vibing

· 01-10 07:39

The exchange BTC balance increasing is not a good sign; this pattern is too absolute. Wait, why hasn't it broken down yet? --- Large capital volume is not as big as last year, in simple terms, no one dares to make a heavy move. --- Slowly repairing with two steps forward and one step back... Waiting for external stimuli again? Feels like we're always waiting. --- Can on-chain data lie? The wave pushed by million-level big holders last year, why is there no movement now? --- So now it's just about biding time, accumulating potential energy. Sounds just like simmering soup. --- If resistance levels can't be broken, it just means no new capital is coming in, retail investors are all selling, who can withstand this?

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ImpermanentSage

· 01-10 07:38

The signs of exchange dumping are so obvious, still want to break through? You're overthinking it. Even the big whales aren't fierce enough, indicating no one is truly bullish. We have to wait for this wave of market to play out, don't rush. The kind of surge we saw last April probably won't happen again; now it's just about enduring.

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