2026-01-10 07:25:38

Market analysis institutions have recently provided three development scenarios for Ethereum. In a bull market scenario, it could reach $51,000, assuming Ethereum fully dominates the global financial infrastructure and becomes the underlying protocol of the digital economy. The bear market scenario sees it dropping to $360, which would occur only if regulatory pressure, technological coldness, and increased competition emerge. However, they believe the most probable scenario is around $11,800.

How is this forecast calculated? The institutions used a discounted cash flow (DCF) method. By 2030, they predict that Ethereum's annual revenue from transaction fees, MEV, staking rewards, and other channels could reach $51 billion. Treating it as a high-quality tech company for valuation and applying a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio, the fair price comes out to approximately $11,800. The core assumption is that Ethereum successfully completes its technological upgrades, secures an important position in traditional finance and Web3, and becomes a key hub of the value internet.

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GateUser-1a2ed0b9

· 01-10 07:55

That 11,800 figure feels like it's just pulled out of thin air. Discounted cash flow sounds impressive but it's all based on assumptions anyway. --- $51 billion in annual revenue? Come on, if that actually happened I'd be financially free already. --- I went all-in at $360 in the bear market, but $51,000 in the bull market? Are you dreaming or what? --- Here we go again with institutions telling stories. Who the hell knows what happens by 2030, we can't even figure out this year. --- Discounted cash flow sounds good, but it's really just reverse-engineering a number that looks decent. You can apply this logic to literally anything. --- For it to actually become financial infrastructure, regulators would have to sign off. But that premise itself doesn't hold up. --- Every time institutions put out predictions they give three numbers, and one of them is probably right anyway, so we just bet on the middle one. --- MEV yields that high? These numbers feel way too optimistic to me. --- The position of base layer protocols is already locked in. The real question now is how much meat we can get, and 11,800 sounds reasonable.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-10 07:54

The discounted cash flow method yields 11,800, which sounds good, but the question is: can the assumptions hold? The figure of $51 billion in annual revenue depends on Ethereum truly being able to hold its ground. History has shown us that no supply line can stay unobstructed forever.

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SnapshotDayLaborer

· 01-10 07:51

$360? That’s so pessimistic, it feels worse than 2018.

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CexIsBad

· 01-10 07:49

$51,000? Dream on haha, unless the global financial system is truly completely rewritten. 360 yuan is a bit scary, but regulation is indeed a sword hanging over our heads. I think the most likely figure is 11,800; the number calculated using discounted cash flow seems quite reliable. $51 billion annual revenue? Reaching that by 2030 would be great, provided no black swan events occur. Staking yields and MEV are indeed future gold mines, I’m optimistic. The discounted cash flow method sounds professional, but once assumptions change, it’s all over—that’s the charm of crypto. To maintain the position of underlying protocols, competitiveness is the key.

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