With January 30th approaching, the US government is once again at risk of shutdown. This event could have a significant impact on the crypto market, so February trading should be especially cautious.

There is a clear historical reference: the last government shutdown started on October 1st of last year, and within ten days, the crypto market experienced a flash crash. The timing is so coincidental that it suggests this is not a mere coincidence.

How will a shutdown affect the crypto space? The mechanism is quite straightforward. First, core regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC will halt operations. Approvals for spot ETFs and the advancement of digital asset regulation will all be interrupted. Institutional investors, who were previously observing policy developments, will have their expectations shattered once these processes pause. Market sentiment will naturally cool down, and institutional funds may hesitate or even withdraw.

From another perspective, more directly—departments like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Department of Commerce will stop releasing key economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI. The Federal Reserve will have less critical data to guide interest rate decisions, making policy decisions more uncertain. Market volatility is likely to increase accordingly. As high-risk assets, cryptocurrencies will inevitably become the preferred safe-haven sell-off targets during this period.

The current macroeconomic environment is already fragile. The Fed’s rate cut expectations have been repeatedly delayed, US debt risks are high, and a black swan event in politics could trigger market anomalies, making a sudden shift almost inevitable.

If the government shutdown on January 30th materializes, February could see a repeat of the last panic—capital withdrawal and explosive sentiment. Mainstream cryptocurrencies will face new volatility, and smaller tokens will experience even greater downward pressure.

For traders, the most important thing now is to proactively implement risk management strategies. Reduce positions, steer clear of highly volatile tokens, and keep a close eye on the latest developments in US congressional budget negotiations. Don’t be fooled by the surface stability of recent markets; the underlying risks are real. February trading requires heightened vigilance and readiness to respond to potential market anomalies.