Bitcoin is showing positive signals of cycle reset after experiencing intense volatility.

Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly's recent data disclosure has attracted attention—long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin in 2025 have recorded the most aggressive sell-off ever. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, dormant for over a year, is flowing back into the market. This is not a routine profit-taking but a true "crash-style sell-off."

The most intense period occurred within the 30 days from mid-November to mid-December. During this time, the largest single-month distribution peak in five years was created—1.14 million BTC flowed out of the market. This number is quite astonishing but also reveals the true market sentiment: panic rather than rational selling. Interestingly, this wave of selling happened right after the price weakness in October, marking a fundamental shift in market psychology—from continuing the existing trend to entering a cycle reset phase.

But here is a key turning point. After December, on-chain data started to change. LTH supply stopped declining and stabilized around approximately 13.6 million BTC. Bitcoin prices also entered a relatively stable sideways range. What does this "bottoming" phenomenon usually imply?

Historical data provides the answer. The supply ratio of long-term/short-term holders (LTH/STH ratio) fell to -0.53 in December last year. Based on historical experience, once this ratio drops below -0.5, the market typically enters a bottoming or rebound phase. The current -0.53 is right at this critical point, and this is no coincidence.

Overall, selling pressure is gradually diminishing. The future scenario might look like this: from Q1 to Q2 of 2026, a longer consolidation period is expected, during which the market will complete its bottoming process. Subsequently, a sustained upward trend is likely to begin, with a new wave of market rally expected to truly unfold in Q3.

Market cycles are like the changing seasons; after winter, spring is sure to come. The large-scale sell-off by long-term holders may seem risky, but in fact, it is preparing for the next upward movement.