Recent crude oil market movements have given us a valuable lesson—what appears to be a strong rebound can also turn around at a critical point.

This week's trend is quite typical. Early in the week, supported by geopolitical tensions and positive inventory data, oil prices surged from 55.78 to 59.80, with a significant rebound and a bullish momentum that looked quite strong. But the problem arose—after reaching a high, the momentum started to weaken. Expectations of a slowdown in global economic recovery began to ferment, and concerns about crude oil demand increased, resulting in prices falling back from the highs, finally closing around 58.77. The entire week was a back-and-forth within the 55-60 range, without a clear direction.

Looking at the 4-hour chart makes it clearer. The price formed a "V-shaped rebound + sharp rise and fall" rhythm. It initially broke through the previous consolidation zone but lost momentum around 60, indicating strong resistance at that level. Currently, the price is oscillating within the short-term range of 58.25-59.80. The moving averages are still aligned bullishly, but the KDJ and MACD indicators have already shown divergence signals, which means there is a short-term need for a correction.

Key levels to keep in mind: 58.25 below is a support for the rebound; if broken, it could continue to decline toward the 57-56.71 range. On the upside, 59.80 is a resistance level; only a breakout above it can open further upside potential.

How to operate next Monday? Here are two ideas. For a rebound, if the price retraces to 58.00-58.25, you can consider entering long positions in batches, targeting 59.00-59.50. If the rebound reaches 59.50-59.80 and encounters resistance, you might consider short positions in batches, targeting 58.50-58.25. That’s how the market works—grasping the rhythm is the most important.