Last night's US non-farm payroll data was a true "dual personality," leaving the market stunned by the report. The apparent logic is clear—slowing job growth indicates a cooling labor market. But a closer look shows the unemployment rate stuck at 4.4%, surprisingly not continuing to decline, instead showing stubborn resilience. This contradictory combination has become the most powerful bargaining chip in the Fed's hands.

The reaction in the interest rate futures market was the most straightforward. Expectations for rate cuts plummeted, with the probability of a rate cut in January dropping to almost zero. Traders who were previously debating "when to start cutting rates" have now collectively shifted to "let's wait until next year." The market consensus has thus instantly reversed.