#市场情绪 Seeing Tom Lee again making headlines for "breaking the community's defenses," I am reminded of some old stories from the 2017 market rally. Back then, various influencers were frequently voicing their opinions—some shouting for 100,000, others bearish to zero. In the end, those who survived were those who neither were overly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic.

This time's disagreements are quite interesting—bullish voices are being criticized, analyst target expectations are repeatedly adjusted on Ethereum, and even their own fund analysts are singing a different tune. This makes me think of a common old question: market sentiment swings like a pendulum, often oscillating between extremes. The previous overly bullish sentiment led to countless retail investors getting trapped, and this overly bearish phase might be brewing the next opportunity.

The true cycle isn't about who makes the most accurate prediction, but about who can stay calm when emotions are out of control. Tom Lee's comments themselves are not important; what matters is the phenomenon of "intensifying divergence"—when professional analysts and the community have such a large cognitive gap, it often indicates that market sentiment is undergoing some kind of transition. History always repeats itself, just with different faces. Those who have experienced multiple cycles should now be thinking not about who is right, but about what this rift behind the scenes signifies.