Investment Timing Series: Today, let's discuss a core topic—when is the true buying opportunity.
As investors, we often spend a lot of time researching a particular industry or company, using qualitative and quantitative analysis to find high-quality firms. The problem is, by the time you've done most of your research, the stocks of these high-quality companies are often no longer cheap. Good companies rarely fall to low prices; this is the market's reality. So, most of the time, our approach is to add the companies we favor to our watchlist and then wait—wait for the price to drop.
What is needed here is patience. Truly high-quality stocks won't easily fall to low levels because there is confidence in them in the market. So, what is the most ideal buying opportunity? Simply put, it's during a bear market. Only when a bear market arrives can we see those high-quality stocks trading at undervalued prices, and at that time, the price-to-earnings ratio becomes worth paying attention to.
Accumulation over time is crucial. We need to continuously improve our circle of competence, identify those truly good companies, and then be fully prepared—just waiting for the right moment. That moment is the market crash and bear market brought by Mr. Market. It is precisely these extreme market fluctuations that give us such opportunities.
However, in reality, most investors do not understand this. They think there are opportunities everywhere in the market, and that's not wrong—there are indeed many opportunities. But where there are many opportunities, there are also many risks. Infinite opportunities equal infinite risks. Our capital is limited, and our circle of competence is limited; we simply cannot seize all opportunities. True wisdom lies in knowing when to take action and when to wait.
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ProofOfNothing
· 01-10 08:58
That's right, but I think most people simply can't wait for that "favorable wind" and will cut their losses before the bear market even arrives.
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NullWhisperer
· 01-10 08:56
technically speaking, this is just survivor bias dressed up as wisdom. waiting for the bear market to buy cheap? sure, *theoretically exploitable*—except most people panic-sell at the bottom instead. the real vulnerability here is thinking you can actually time it.
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StopLossMaster
· 01-10 08:49
Waiting for a bear market? I feel like I've been waiting all along, and my money is just sitting idle.
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GasFeeWhisperer
· 01-10 08:38
Is the bear market still far away? I'm already tired of waiting 😭
Investment Timing Series: Today, let's discuss a core topic—when is the true buying opportunity.
As investors, we often spend a lot of time researching a particular industry or company, using qualitative and quantitative analysis to find high-quality firms. The problem is, by the time you've done most of your research, the stocks of these high-quality companies are often no longer cheap. Good companies rarely fall to low prices; this is the market's reality. So, most of the time, our approach is to add the companies we favor to our watchlist and then wait—wait for the price to drop.
What is needed here is patience. Truly high-quality stocks won't easily fall to low levels because there is confidence in them in the market. So, what is the most ideal buying opportunity? Simply put, it's during a bear market. Only when a bear market arrives can we see those high-quality stocks trading at undervalued prices, and at that time, the price-to-earnings ratio becomes worth paying attention to.
Accumulation over time is crucial. We need to continuously improve our circle of competence, identify those truly good companies, and then be fully prepared—just waiting for the right moment. That moment is the market crash and bear market brought by Mr. Market. It is precisely these extreme market fluctuations that give us such opportunities.
However, in reality, most investors do not understand this. They think there are opportunities everywhere in the market, and that's not wrong—there are indeed many opportunities. But where there are many opportunities, there are also many risks. Infinite opportunities equal infinite risks. Our capital is limited, and our circle of competence is limited; we simply cannot seize all opportunities. True wisdom lies in knowing when to take action and when to wait.