The latest employment data shows that in December, the US added only 50,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below market expectations of 70,000. Even worse, the figures for the previous two months were revised downward by 76,000. Although the unemployment rate has slightly improved, this combination of data is quite sobering—the three-month average of private sector jobs has fallen to a low of 29,000, and industry distribution is becoming increasingly uneven, mainly concentrated in a few sectors.

It appears that the diffusion of the employment market is shrinking. However, based on other leading indicators, there is still some hope for redemption. Recently, the number of initial unemployment claims has mostly been better than expected, actual layoffs by companies are declining, and NFIB's business hiring intentions have been improving. Combining these signals, it is expected that upcoming non-farm payroll numbers may rebound, but the key will be whether the "temperature gap" between economic growth and employment can be narrowed.

From the Federal Reserve's perspective, although employment is weak, it has not continued to deteriorate, which gives them a reason to pause rate cuts. It is expected that at the January meeting, the Fed will hold steady and wait for further data before making decisions. Looking ahead, it is likely that from January to May, they will maintain a pause on rate cuts, and only after the new chair takes office might they consider cutting rates once or twice. Overall, the employment market is currently in a "half-dead" state—neither bad enough to force the Fed to rush to rescue the market nor good enough to reassure them to cut rates.