Tonight, the crypto market is at a critical juncture—non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve Chair appointment announcements are arriving simultaneously, directly determining the subsequent market tone. Currently, Bitcoin has retraced to around $89,000, Ethereum remains above the $3,000 threshold, and the market is awaiting clearer signals.

First, let's look at liquidity expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 11.6%, effectively ruling out expectations of liquidity easing at the beginning of the month. The real decisive factor lies in the rate cut pace throughout 2026—this is the key variable influencing whether the crypto market can initiate a large cycle.

Market opinions on rate cuts in 2026 are clearly divided. Polymarket data shows the most likely scenario is two rate cuts for the whole year (a total of 50 basis points), accounting for 28%; the second most likely is three cuts (a total of 75 basis points), at 22%; the probability of four or more cuts is below 17%, considered a low-probability event. However, Federal Reserve Board member Milan recently proposed an aggressive plan advocating for a 150 basis point cut in 2026, along with supporting employment policies—this significantly diverges from mainstream market expectations.

These data and policy signals will directly determine whether the market will trigger a bull run early or undergo a round of adjustment and accumulation first.