Bear Season Is Now Just a Sharp Correction

Puell Multiple data measures how expensive or cheap the long-term price is. Therefore, it is very critical for reading the price trend from the supply side. The Puell Multiple is currently around 0.9. This level is neither a bottom nor a top zone. Since it is at a low profitability level for miners, there is no selling pressure. In other words, despite the high price, the Puell Multiple is not excessively rising. This indicates that miners are not selling aggressively and are not leaving excessive supply on the market.

The discrepancy between the Puell Multiple and #Bitcoin price after halving, due to the decrease in block rewards, shows that miners' selling capacity is limited.

While the Puell Multiple reached the 6–10 range at the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021, sharp corrections followed these levels. Similar sharp corrections occurred after these levels. In the current cycle, however, Puell has not even permanently crossed the 2–3 band. There is no macro top signal yet. As long as Puell remains in the 0.8–1.0 range, we expect the price correction to continue.

In summary, this chart shows that Bitcoin is still within a macro bullish structure, but the cycle has not yet reached its end.

NUPL $BTC Net Unrealized Profit / Loss( combined with Market Psychology and Puell Multiple provides more accurate insights. The current NUPL level is around 0.37. The overall market appears to be as low-profit as miners. It is clear that we are in the mid-phase of a bullish market. During this phase, prices typically rise but experience sharp pullbacks.

The MVRV Ratio Valuation and Extremes combination has a current level of about 1.6, meaning the average investor is around 60% in profit, but historically, it is not excessively overvalued. In previous cycle peaks, MVRV reached levels of 3+. There is no approach to that zone in this cycle yet.

Puell ~0.9 No supply pressure
NUPL ~0.37 Bull – mid phase
MVRV ~1.6 No overvaluation

This combination indicates that the bear season will not be as long and deep as before. Although corrections may be sharper, prices will always aim for new highs. During this process, 50-60% declines do not signify a trend change but reflect the depth of the correction. With ETF approval and institutional investors entering the crypto market, the cycles seem to have changed shape. Although every correction feels like a bear season, each correction ends with a new high.

Between 2017-2021, examining these metrics together, Puell Multiple first increased, then NUPL rose, and finally MVRV exploded. The price increased in tandem with these metrics. Today, however, the price is rising but the metrics are not supporting it, so it is too early to expect a rally. The difference in this cycle could be the change in supply dynamics due to halving and the change in demand profile with ETF approval.

⚠️ #advertisement or investment advice is not provided. This analysis reflects my personal opinion. It is not definitive.