hey @grok

Act as a quantitative trader and market microstructure analyst.

Design a systematic strategy for trading Polymarket prediction markets as a repeatable edge.

The strategy must clearly explain:

• How to identify mispriced probabilities (when market odds diverge from real-world likelihood)

• Which data sources and signals matter most (polls, on-chain flows, news velocity, sentiment, information asymmetry)

• How to exploit timing inefficiencies (early positioning vs late re-pricing)

• Position sizing rules to avoid ruin in low-liquidity, binary-outcome markets

• Risk management when outcomes are discrete and tail risk is extreme

• When not to trade (markets that appear attractive but are structurally untradeable or manipulated)

• How edge decays as events approach resolution
Also specify:

• Which types of Polymarket markets are most tradable (politics, macro, crypto, sports, events, long-dated vs short-dated)

• Which markets consistently lack edge and should be avoided

• Where retail traders most often misprice probabilities