In the first two weeks of the new year, the market sentiment has been somewhat complex. On one hand, Bitcoin is rallying back to $94,000, and the total market capitalization has regained over $3.1 trillion; on the other hand, institutional investors are uniformly speaking of being "cautiously optimistic."

What exactly is causing this contradictory feeling?

Simply put, it's a tug-of-war between two forces.

The upward force is quite strong: on-chain data shows that the profit-taking pressure from late last year has eased significantly; US spot ETFs are beginning to see inflows, providing fundamental support to the market. On the options front, bullish buy orders are increasing, and traders are contemplating whether to re-leverage.

But the downside uncertainties are also present—will the Federal Reserve continue to cut interest rates? The path remains unclear. More critically, the entire community is waiting for something that could change the game: when will the US crypto market structure bill be enacted? Some research reports openly state that if this bill passes in the first half of the year, large institutional funds might enter the market in a big way.

In other words, the logic of 2026 might change. Institutions will no longer pursue a broad, all-encompassing approach; instead, capital will flow more precisely into projects with strong fundamentals and resilience against volatility. Amid the fog of macro and policy uncertainties, identifying those truly valuable sectors with clear narratives is the key to the next step.

Interestingly, this obsession with "long-term value" reminds me of another practice within the crypto community. Just like some projects focus on global free education for children, they don’t chase hot trends but quietly build a pathway for education. Every community action is about reinforcing this foundation. While seeking "alpha" in investment markets, this effort to create social "beta" (underlying value) also deserves our attention.