US Market on the Rise: US index futures show momentum driven by tech stocks, while the Federal Reserve charts a cautious path (December 22, 2025)

Movement of Major Indices and Market Dynamics

The US financial markets experienced a session marked by stability, with the overall rebound of US index futures reflecting renewed optimism toward the technology sector. The S&P 500 gained 0.88%, the Nasdaq showed a stronger increase of 1.31%, while the Dow Jones maintained a more cautious trend with a rise of 0.38%.

Among the day’s standout performers are stocks related to artificial intelligence: Nvidia surged by 3.93%, accompanied by Oracle (+6.63%), Micron Technology (+6.99%), and AMD (+6.15%). This sector movement, which overall reached about +4%, reflects a recovery in investor interest in AI opportunities, supported also by significant capital flows near year-end.

Among tech giants, Google rose by 1.55%, Microsoft by 0.40%, Amazon by 0.26%, while Apple showed a more modest increase of 0.54%. Meta experienced a slight decline of 0.85%, as did Tesla, which fell by 0.45%.

The Federal Reserve’s Positioning: a Strategic Pause

The US central institution continues to navigate between contrasting assessments of future monetary policy conduct. Cleveland Fed President Harker stated that maintaining policy neutrality is appropriate until the inflation trajectory becomes sufficiently clear. This stance reflects divergences that emerged during the last December meeting, which recorded the highest number of dissenting votes since 2019.

Within the Federal Reserve Board, opinions differ on prioritizing employment objectives versus price stability. The projection chart indicated that six members see it as appropriate to keep rates unchanged through 2026. This cautious approach could ease market fears of an accelerated tightening, although a resurgence of inflationary pressures might trigger volatility in very short-term expectations.

Simultaneously, the process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair enters a delicate phase, with candidates like Hassett, Walsh, and Waller scrutinized regarding their independence. Representatives from major financial institutions, including BlackRock executives and JPMorgan’s CEO, maintain frequent contacts with the administration, creating uncertainty about future policy continuity.

Commodities and Geopolitical Dynamics

On the commodities front, Indonesia announced a significant contraction in nickel production for 2026, projecting a decrease to 250 million tons compared to 2025 targets. This signal led to a multi-day recovery in nickel futures, moving them away from the lows of the past eight months. The supply reduction should support prices in the medium to long term, benefiting the electric vehicle battery supply chain, although volatility will depend on the intensity of demand recovery.

On a broader scale, the US administration has accelerated the integration of space security into national strategic priorities. The Pentagon has signed contracts worth $3.5 billion for the acquisition of infrared satellites, involving specialized companies like Lockheed Martin, L3Harris, Northrop Grumman, and Rocket Lab. The mission involves deploying 72 units by 2029 to ensure global missile warning coverage. This initiative represents a convergence of civilian space ambitions and defense capabilities, potentially stimulating a reevaluation of advanced defense stocks and catalyzing investments in the aerospace sector.

Developments in the Tech and Healthcare Sectors

SpaceX towards an innovative listing

Hedge fund manager Ackman proposed an alternative structure to the traditional IPO to bring SpaceX to public markets, using a special purpose acquisition vehicle (SPARC). The proposal involves granting Tesla holders conversion rights, with each Tesla share equivalent to 0.5 SPARs convertible into two SpaceX shares, resulting in approximately 3.446 billion common shares. This approach aims to reduce subscription costs and consolidate Musk’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. If implemented, the solution would provide additional value to Tesla shareholders, making the stock worth attention in the medium to long term.

Google and expansion into AI security

Google Cloud signed a multi-year agreement valued at nearly $10 billion with Palo Alto Networks to develop security solutions enhanced by artificial intelligence, addressing emerging threats from generative systems. This order is the most significant in the cloud security segment for Google’s infrastructure, positioning it competitively against Amazon and Microsoft. According to Polymarket projections, the probability that Alphabet will reach the highest global market capitalization by the end of 2026 stands at 33%, reflecting confidence in the developments of the Gemini architecture and proprietary TPU chips.

For Palo Alto Networks, the contract ensures substantial revenues and consolidates its leadership in zero trust architecture, with expectations of further expansion of its market capitalization base. The stock is suitable for strategies focused on stability within the tech segment, supported by the certainty of revenue streams from the agreement.

Sentiment Signals and Structural Risks

Bank of America reported an increase in optimism in equity markets, with weekly capital inflows reaching historic highs. Investors are positioning themselves in anticipation of benefits from an accommodative policy in 2026, betting on rate cuts, expansive fiscal interventions, and trade tariff adjustments. The composite sentiment indicator reached 8.5, suggesting elements of structural overheating in the market.

Despite the favorable climate supporting the ongoing bullish movement, the combination of accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, along with high valuations in certain segments, poses a risk of short-term corrections. Operators are advised to monitor sectors with particularly elevated valuation multiples carefully.

Sector Outlook

The defense and space segment recorded positive movements of about +2%, benefiting from official announcements regarding new government orders for space militarization. These geopolitical developments support long-term growth expectations in the sector.

In the pharmaceutical sector, nine giants reached agreements with the administration to reduce prices for certain medicines in exchange for a three-year suspension of trade tariffs. This agreement covers 14 of the 17 targeted companies and includes the launch of a government discount platform. While it promotes control over healthcare spending, profit margin compression could accelerate consolidations within the sector.

Analytical Perspective

Today’s rebound in US index futures consolidates the moderately positive trend, ending recent volatility. Moderated inflation data, combined with expectations of position rebuilding before the holiday season, provide support. Despite the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve continuing to generate uncertainty, the traditional Christmas rally still has room to express itself in the market.