January 13 | BTC Trend Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $91,182.70 (as of 09:33 on January 13)

Short-term Outlook: Neutral leaning bullish. Technical indicators show BTC consolidating around 91,200, with the daily MACD maintaining positive expansion. Short-term resistance tests are expected around 92,000-93,000. If the resistance at 91,792 is broken, upward momentum will further accelerate; if the key support at 90,000 is broken, a pullback towards 89,500 is possible. Probabilities suggest about a 60% chance of breaking upward and about 40% of a downward correction.

Key Supports:

• First Support: $90,118 (4-hour Bollinger Band lower band)
• Second Support: $89,976 (Daily Bollinger Band middle band)
• Core Support: $88,380 (Liquidation dense zone, with a total of $1.4 billion long exposure)

Key Resistances:

• First Resistance: $91,792 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper band)
• Second Resistance: $93,968 (Daily Bollinger Band upper band)
• Secondary Resistance: $91,576 (Short liquidation point, with a total of $25.7 million)

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Indicators

1-hour timeframe: RSI(14) is 49.02, in neutral zone; MACD value is 68.82, below the signal line at 92.97, with a histogram of -24.15 indicating slight bearish divergence. Price consolidates in the moving average cluster around 91,200-91,300; a break above 91,500 could open upward space.

4-hour timeframe: RSI(14) is 50.70, maintaining neutrality; MACD value is 73.57, above the signal line at -12.27, with a histogram of 85.84 indicating increasing bullish momentum. Price forms higher lows around 90,900, suggesting accumulation phase, awaiting test of 91,800 resistance.

Daily timeframe: RSI(14) is 54.08, slightly bullish; MACD value is 505.05, significantly above the signal line at 357.17, with a histogram of 147.88 continuing to expand, confirming strong upward trend. Price near the Bollinger upper band at 93,968, forming a bullish engulfing pattern around support at 90,000, with volume supporting continued upward movement.

Derivatives and On-chain Data

Futures Market: Open interest decreased by 2.63% in 24 hours to $59.9 billion, indicating reduced leverage and a clear consolidation trend. Funding rate remains positive at 0.003%, with longs paying shorts, hinting at slight over-leverage.

Options Market: Open interest at $32.4 billion, down 0.6%; trading volume plummeted by 51.65%, indicating low activity. Max pain point is concentrated between 90,000-95,000, forming a price magnet zone.

On-chain Flows: On January 12, net outflow of 1,356 BTC from exchanges, reserves decreased to 2,748,334 BTC (down from previous day), indicating holders withdrawing to cold wallets, tightening supply and supporting price.

Liquidation risk chart shows: breaking below 90,000 could trigger $1.38 billion in long liquidations, while breaking above 92,000 could cause $1 billion in short liquidations.

Market Sentiment

Institutions and Policy Environment

Institutional Accumulation: MicroStrategy added 13,627 BTC worth $1.25 billion at an average of about $91,519, with total holdings reaching 687,410 BTC (roughly $62 billion), demonstrating long-term bullish confidence.

Policy Optimism: US regulatory environment turns positive. SEC Chair Paul Atkins called this week a “Crypto Week,” Congress is upgrading market regulation frameworks; Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed legislation to protect Bitcoin and open-source developers from money transmission laws; Patrick Witt, member of the President’s Digital Asset Advisory Committee, revealed the CLARITY Act is imminent.

Social Media Sentiment

Overall Tone: Predominantly bullish, but technical consolidation tempers enthusiasm, leading to a more rational sentiment. Community discussions focus on macro alignment (correlation with safe-haven assets like gold) and policy benefits, with little retail euphoria, consistent with a mature cycle.

Key Narratives:

• Bulls emphasize US political leadership embracing Bitcoin, with promises of never selling and regulatory clarity boosting confidence.
• Influencers like Michael Saylor continue to promote Bitcoin as a high-quality capital asset; corporate buying reinforces long-term holding trend.
• Bears focus on potential correction risks indicated by technical signals; some analysts predict deep adjustments based on historical patterns.

Risk Factors: Policy adjustments reduce selling pressure but also diminish automatic buy orders; some voices question price manipulation suppression, delaying upward rallies.

Conclusion

BTC is currently consolidating around 91,200, with a technical picture showing a neutral to bullish bias. The strong expansion of the daily MACD and on-chain net outflows support upside logic, but short-term 1-hour MACD divergence and futures open interest decline suggest caution.

Trading Strategy Suggestions:

• If price breaks above 91,792 and stabilizes, expect upward targets at 92,000-93,000, with higher probability.
• If support at 90,118 is lost, be alert for a correction towards 89,500-90,000, with risk controls in place.
• Institutional accumulation and policy favorable environment lay a solid medium-term bullish foundation; short-term fluctuations are normal consolidations.

Risk Warning: Large long liquidation clusters below 90,000 could trigger chain reactions if broken; closely monitor futures funding rates and options open interest changes.