January 13, 2026 Daily Report

In the past two days, both the US stock market and BTC have experienced slight rebounds, with the S&P 500 reaching a new all-time high, and gold and silver also hitting record highs.

Currently, there are two different voices in the market, but the conclusions are quite similar—everyone is not very optimistic about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026.

One voice suggests that the US economy is very resilient now, and the Federal Reserve may not need to cut rates significantly in 2026.

The other voice points out that the inflation decline in November might have been a temporary dip caused by the government shutdown, and inflation is likely to rebound in December, which would make the Fed more cautious and hesitant to cut rates easily.

There are currently 15 days until the next Federal Reserve policy meeting. According to CME data, the probability of a rate cut in January is only about 5%, indicating that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in January.

However, the biggest uncertainty and point of contention now is not the rate cut itself, but whether Trump will intervene in the independence of the Federal Reserve after Powell resigns.

Recently, the US Department of Justice suddenly launched an investigation into Powell, initially aiming to force his resignation. Instead, it backfired—not only did they fail to remove him, but they also made the conflict fully public, tearing apart the cover of the Fed’s independence and the independence of US justice.

Powell directly responded publicly, with former Fed Chair Greenspan, Yellen, Bernanke, and several former Treasury Secretaries collectively condemning the Department of Justice’s actions.

Trump claims he knows nothing about the DOJ investigation, but everyone with a clear eye knows that without his approval, the DOJ wouldn’t dare to target Powell.

In fact, Trump’s real goal isn’t to bring Powell to court but to force him to resign his board position after his term ends, completely leaving the Fed.

But now things have gone wrong. Insiders say Trump’s team originally thought that after nominating a new chair, Powell would quietly step down, but Powell’s stance has become even more firm.

The next step depends on how the investigation into Powell unfolds. If Powell continues to stand firm, he is likely to remain as a board member after stepping down as Chair, which would be a significant trouble for Trump.

On-chain data shows that BTC turnover rate has not increased significantly; most investors are watching from the sidelines.

Last week, MicroStrategy bought another 13,627 BTC at an average price of $91,519. They now hold a total of 680,000 BTC, ranking first among institutional holders.

However, the address linked to the Mento Gou hacker transferred 926 BTC to exchanges yesterday, likely for selling and cashing out. They still hold about 3,000 BTC, worth approximately $270 million.

On the ETH side, Bitmine increased its holdings by over 20,000 ETH last week, with an average purchase price of $3,122.

Currently, they hold over 4 million ETH, with an average cost of $3,862, resulting in an unrealized loss of 3.225 billion USD.

In the short term, due to Trump’s recent chaotic actions and geopolitical conflicts, market volatility is expected to increase.

But in the medium to long term, we are in a period of massive liquidity injection, with no foundation for a long-term bear market.

Gold also experienced sideways consolidation for more than half a year last year, and BTC has been rallying for nearly three years. A slight pause is normal.

Once international capital finds that US stocks, precious metals, and commodities are overvalued, their attention will shift back to BTC, which remains relatively undervalued.