XRP rose slightly by 0.61% yesterday, currently around $2.06, and the market seems to be waiting for a decisive signal.

Regulatory advancement has become the hottest topic. Many are betting on a logic: since Ripple has been mired in litigation over the past few years, regulatory clarity should be the biggest positive, and XRP might rebound before the bill passes. It sounds reasonable, but I think the risks involved are seriously underestimated.

First, let's talk about the issue of expected trading itself. When the bill will pass and what form it will take are all uncertain. Betting on this kind of uncertainty is essentially gambling on probabilities, and the cost of being wrong can be high.

Second, look at actual application. XRP focuses on cross-border payment scenarios, which sound very promising, but adoption rates have not kept up, and most of the time it remains in marketing stories. There’s still quite a gap between this and real commercial implementation.

On the technical side, XRP has been bouncing around the $2 level for a long time, with little change in trading volume. To break through effectively, new buying pressure needs to come in. If regulation falls through, the downward pressure will be very strong.

Personally, I still prefer to focus on projects with real business growth and ongoing technological iteration, rather than constantly speculating on policies. Of course, this is just my personal opinion; everyone’s risk tolerance is different, so it’s best to consider your own situation.