2026 is seen as a pivotal year for cryptocurrency legislation. Tomorrow, January 15th, a key vote on crypto regulation will take place on Capitol Hill — the "Crypto Market Structure Act" will be advanced for review by the Senate Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee. Whether this vote can push the industry toward clear regulatory recognition is the market's focus.

**Key Agenda**

The Senate Banking Committee will vote as scheduled on SEC regulatory provisions. Meanwhile, the review by the Senate Agriculture Committee on CFTC jurisdiction, originally set for the same day, has now signaled a "one-week delay," as both sides seek bipartisan consensus.

In the current situation, the Republican Party is eager to push the bill forward to achieve political gains, while the Democratic Party is engaged in a tug-of-war over key provisions. The White House has expressed a positive attitude, with the crypto affairs chief stating that "the United States is closest to comprehensive digital asset legislation."

**Advantages and Challenges**

The chairman of the Banking Committee confirmed that a vote must be held on the 15th. If approved, spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, stablecoins, DeFi, and others will gain compliance status, and Wall Street expects this to unleash hundreds of billions of dollars in compliant capital.

However, there are still disagreements between the two parties on "stablecoin yield remittance" and "DeFi anti-money laundering responsibilities." Considering the upcoming midterm elections, the Agriculture Committee's vote may be delayed until the end of the month, and investment banks warn that the final enactment of the entire bill could be pushed back to 2029.

**Market Probability Estimates**

The probability of the Banking Committee passing the bill on that day is about 70%; the probability of the Agriculture Committee voting the same day is about 35%; and the chance of the bill becoming law in 2026 is approximately 40%.

**Trend Analysis**

Tomorrow is likely to present a "half-time champagne opening" scenario — successful passage by the Banking Committee, with the Agriculture Committee pressing the pause button. Any bipartisan approval in either committee could be enough to shift market sentiment from "neutral" to "greedy." In the short term, close attention should be paid to the draft text updates at 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday night, as changes to the "yield ban" and "DeFi filing" provisions will directly impact market performance.