Impressions

Early this morning, the market experienced a strong rally, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $94,478 and Ethereum surging to around $3,383. This upward movement was supported by increased trading volume, indicating a return of bullish momentum. Factors driving the rally include optimistic expectations about Federal Reserve policies and technical breakout signals. However, after the rapid surge, short-term technical indicators have entered overbought territory. This suggests that the market may need a brief correction or consolidation to digest the gains, so chasing the market at current levels is not advisable.
Bitcoin Bitcoin's technical outlook currently shows a bullish alignment, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands opening upward, but the 1-hour RSI and other indicators indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a need for technical correction.
Long Position Strategy: A more conservative approach is to wait for the price to retrace to the support zone of $93,600 - $93,800 before entering a light long position. If the pullback deepens, consider scaling into positions around the strong support zone of $92,800 - $93,000. Stop-loss can be set below $92,500, with target levels at $94,500 and $95,000 respectively.
Key Breakthrough: If the price consolidates and then breaks out with volume above the Asian session high of $94,500, it could open up further upside potential toward $95,000 and even $96,000.
Ethereum Ethereum's movement is correlated with Bitcoin and remains strong, but its 4-hour technical indicators also show overbought signals, indicating short-term correction pressure.
Long Position Strategy: The core idea is to buy on dips. Watch for opportunities when the price retraces to the support zone of $3,230 - $3,250. A more conservative entry point is around $3,180 - $3,200. Set stop-loss below $3,150, with targets at $3,350 - $3,380.
Short Position Consideration: Aggressive and experienced traders may consider a short position if the price hits the strong resistance zone of $3,380 - $3,430 and shows clear signs of slowing momentum (such as long upper shadows). Use a strict stop-loss of $30-$50 and target around $3,300.
💎 Overall, after a strong breakout, the short-term trend remains bullish, but caution is needed for technical corrections. The main approach is to favor buying on dips and avoid chasing the market during rallies. Patience in waiting for the price to retrace to key support levels before entering is a more prudent strategy.
Strict Risk Management: Operate with small positions and set strict take-profit and stop-loss levels.
In low-liquidity environments, preventing risks from “pinning” moves is a top priority.
Variables to Watch: Pay close attention to the capital flow data of Bitcoin spot ETFs and broader macroeconomic indicators (such as clues from Federal Reserve policies).