#数字资产市场动态 📊 What will the market do tonight? Key data and policy signals overview

Tonight, several major data releases and events are scheduled, each capable of stirring the market. This is not an exaggeration—if you hold positions, you need to keep a close eye tonight.

🔍 Core Schedule

21:30 → US November Retail Sales MoM, PPI data release
23:00 → US December Existing Home Sales data
23:30 → US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories through January 9
TBD → Supreme Court releases tariff-related rulings
Next day 01:00 → EIA Monthly Energy Outlook
Next day 01:45 → Key figures deliver speeches

💡 The true meaning of the three major data points

**PPI data is a litmus test** — The November PPI YoY expectation at 2.7%. This number essentially reflects whether "inflation is still cooling." If the actual figure is below expectations, the story of inflation cooling down becomes more credible, which usually boosts risk asset valuations. Conversely, if the data is stronger, the market will reassess the future rate cut prospects. $BTC and $ETH are particularly sensitive to this type of data.

**Crude oil inventories are a volatility catalyst** — Last time, a significant inventory drop of 3.832 million barrels directly pushed oil prices higher. Tonight, a forecasted decrease of 1.702 million barrels is expected; if realized, discussions about inflation pressures will resurface. But if inventories increase instead, the market might breathe a sigh of relief.

**Policy rulings are black swan factors** — The Supreme Court’s statement involves the legality boundaries of trade policies, with uncertainty about the outcome. Any unexpected ruling could shake expectations for the dollar and the trade system.

🎯 Market logic chain

In essence: these data and policy signals → influence "inflation expectations" and "probability of rate cuts" → then change investors’ appetite for risk assets.

Mild or weaker data + rising rate cut expectations = risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum may find support
Strong data + retreating rate cut expectations = market pressure, increased volatility

Additional uncertainty comes from policy developments. Speeches overnight could bring extra market shocks, especially on trade and exchange rate issues.

⚡ How traders should respond

1. Tonight is a night of high volatility. If you’re leveraged, consider reducing your leverage now.
2. Keep a close eye on $BTC and $ETH; they are the market sentiment barometers. Once these major coins react quickly, the subsequent trend usually won’t deviate too far.
3. Don’t sleep through it. Speeches overnight can rewrite market narratives at any moment, especially when liquidity is thin, amplifying volatility.

Ultimately, the market direction is determined by the data. Bullish or bearish, the answer will be revealed tonight.