Tonight at 21:30, the crypto market faces two major black swan events simultaneously—both the US November retail sales data and the PPI report will be released, coupled with the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of tariffs taking effect. Under this scenario, market volatility is almost inevitable.

How will the three main factors stir the situation? Interest rate expectations, liquidity changes, and policy uncertainty—these three factors will act in concert, making short-term market fluctuations almost unavoidable. The medium to long-term trend will depend on how the market digests this information.

The key still lies in the data itself. If retail sales month-on-month exceed 0.4% and PPI data remains high, it indicates persistent inflation, and market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 will likely be lowered. What will this lead to? A rally in US Treasury yields and the US dollar, with risk assets like Bitcoin facing selling pressure, and a significant risk of liquidation waves in the futures market.

But what if the data underperforms expectations? The rate cut window reopens, and crypto assets may have a rebound opportunity in the short term. However, caution is advised, as the shadow of a recession trade still looms, and risk appetite could turn around at any moment.

If the data meets expectations, the market will enter a wait-and-see mode, with focus shifting to the outcome of the tariff ruling. Regardless of which of the three possible rulings is made, it will intensify capital differentiation.

Operationally, the most volatile period is the 1-2 hours after 21:30. Stop-losses must be set strictly, and chasing gains or cutting losses impulsively should be avoided, as this is when traders are most likely to get caught.

In the medium term, if inflation persistence continues and the tariff policy is actually implemented, the crypto market is likely to enter a range-bound consolidation. But if expectations for rate cuts are reignited, institutional funds may re-enter, and Bitcoin could break through key resistance levels.

Attention should also be paid to the industry chain. Once tariffs take effect, mining costs for US domestic miners will rise significantly, and global hash power may migrate to regions with lower tariffs, reshaping the entire industry landscape.