The illusion of stability in the macroeconomy was completely shattered this week. When a series of events unfolded before us, we realized a harsh reality: when macro risks meet on-chain weak signals, the rally of crypto assets becomes extremely fragile.

Let's look at what happened this week. CPI data underperformed expectations → market sentiment shifted → liquidity flooded into exchanges. Over $500 million in short positions were wiped out, and Bitcoin surged to around $95,000 at one point, marking the most intense short squeeze since October last year. It sounds exciting, but a closer look at the data reveals issues.

This rally appears to be vigorous on the surface, but the driving forces are highly questionable — it’s not primarily driven by spot buying, but rather by derivatives market antics. Corporate investors and long-term holders remained silent and did not participate much. Instead, on-chain data shows that some new "whales" are already trapped with unrealized losses. We've seen this signal before, often occurring during squeeze markets later on.

In plain terms, the current upward movement is not solid. The next major uncertainty is right in front of us — the Supreme Court's tariff ruling on January 14th, which could cause volatility in both the dollar and risk assets. Simultaneously, the US crypto regulatory frameworks (GENIUS Act and )CLARITY Act are gradually becoming institutionalized, which is positive for institutional access.

My judgment: Bitcoin’s upward momentum is being tested. ETF inflows support the price bottom, but speculative leverage remains the main driver. The real pressure point lies in short-term volatility. Market perception needs to stay sharp, stance should remain neutral, and risk control is always more valuable than unwarranted optimism.