Everyone, the calm in the crypto world has been disrupted again. This time, the disturbance isn't from on-chain data but from macro policies in the US—Trump is once again urging Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates. Coincidentally, the latest US CPI data was unexpectedly low, and Trump immediately praised the data, calling it "ridiculously low." Then he directly targeted the Federal Reserve, implying: "Bro, stop dithering and act now."

As someone who has been in this space for ten years, I have to be upfront with everyone: in the next 3 to 6 months, Bitcoin could go up or down, and this macro game is the real variable.

Let's clarify the timeline. After the CPI data was released, it was lower than expected, clearly indicating that inflation pressures have eased significantly. Trump saw this data and immediately said it was "very good," then subtly criticized the Fed for being too slow to respond. In other words: inflation is no longer the main issue, so what are you still hesitating for?

There's an important point to mention—macro policies and the crypto market have always been tightly linked, especially the Fed's interest rate policies. These are like the "on/off switch" for Bitcoin. Looking back at history makes this clear. In August last year, Powell merely hinted at a possible rate adjustment, and Bitcoin jumped 5.12% that day, with the Bitcoin premium index on domestic platforms soaring to a 39-day high. Fast forward to the end of this year, when the Fed's rate cut was smaller than expected, Bitcoin immediately fell over 5%, and the entire market saw over $700 million in liquidations in a single day. So, the real goal behind Trump’s pressure this time is to push the Fed to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting stance.