ETH drops below 3300: Are institutions building positions or reducing?

Ethereum (ETH) just broke below the psychological threshold of 3300 USDT, with the current price at 3299.77 USDT. This decline seems normal, but the underlying market signals are quite complex. In the short term, ETH has fallen by 0.44%, but over the past month, it has risen by 12.75%. Meanwhile, the latest actions by major institutions like BlackRock and Bitmine, as well as the upcoming Senate deliberation on the structure of the crypto market, are sending conflicting signals to the market.

Medium-term Uptrend Amid Short-term Adjustment

According to the latest data, ETH’s recent performance exhibits typical short-term volatility:

What does this data combination indicate? In the short term, ETH is indeed adjusting, but over a longer timeframe, ETH remains in a clear upward channel. The breach of the 3300 level is more a reflection of short-term technical factors rather than a trend reversal signal.

Market Dynamics Behind Institutional Actions

In recent days, several key institutional moves have attracted market attention:

BlackRock’s Coin Deposits

According to the latest news, on January 12, BlackRock deposited 3743 BTC (approximately $339 million) and 7204 ETH (about $22.42 million) into Coinbase Prime. This move was immediately interpreted by the market as a “de-risking signal,” with some even suggesting “bad news is coming.” However, from another perspective, depositing coins into exchanges could also be for preparing to build positions or adjust holdings; the exact intent requires further observation.

Bitmine’s Continuous Accumulation

In contrast, Bitmine’s actions appear quite different. Reports indicate that over the past week, Bitmine bought 24,266 ETH (about $75.59 million), currently holding 4.168 million ETH, accounting for 3.45% of the total ETH supply. Chairman Tom Lee has also urged shareholders to approve a proposal to increase authorized shares, citing that “the current 500 million authorized shares are nearly exhausted and must be issued immediately, or ETH accumulation will slow down.” This clearly indicates a bullish stance.

Complex Whale Transactions

On-chain data also shows market divergence. On one hand, high-frequency trading whales are long 3,477.95 ETH (about $1.096 million) with 25x leverage, with an average entry price of $3,165.38; on the other hand, the “largest PEPE bull” has shifted to long ETH, with 4x leverage on 5,618.97 ETH. These all point to active bullish positioning.

Macro Risks Cannot Be Ignored

The upcoming Senate review of the crypto market structure has become the biggest recent uncertainty. According to analysis by 10x Research, bipartisan breakthroughs, purely partisan pushes, or “poison pill” amendments could cause significant volatility in BTC prices and trigger rapid rotations among assets like SOL, ETH, XRP, and others. This explains why, despite strong fundamentals, institutions are taking some defensive actions.

Summary

Breaking below 3300 does not necessarily mean a trend reversal. From a medium-term perspective, ETH remains in an upward channel, with a 12.75% increase over 30 days. The short-term decline might instead be a healthy correction.

What is truly worth noting is the complex attitude of market participants: long-term holders like Bitmine are actively building positions, while institutions like BlackRock are depositing coins into exchanges, indicating concerns about short-term policy risks. The progress of the Senate’s crypto legislation review could be a key factor in determining ETH’s future direction.

In this context, the gain or loss of the 3300 level may be less important than the outcome of the Senate vote.