#加密市场周期与牛熊转换 The grayscale bullish talk is back again, claiming that there is a demand for value storage, regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin reaching new highs in the first half of next year. It sounds convincing, but I have to pour some cold water—over the years, I’ve seen too many similar "institutional optimism" expectations, and look at what happened in the end.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying all of Grayscale’s analysis is nonsense. Factors like rising government debt and concerns about fiat currency devaluation do exist, and progress in regulatory frameworks is not empty talk. The problem is, these positive signals are often already reflected in market sentiment. When Grayscale and others collectively shout bullish, it’s precisely a time to be cautious.

The key is to see clearly: predictions like reaching new highs in the first half of 2026 are essentially describing expectations that the market has already digested. What is the real risk? It’s the retail investors following the trend, the various air projects under the guise of "track opportunities," and the old scams that revive under the bull market sentiment with a new disguise.

My advice is simple: regulation is indeed progressing, and that’s true. But don’t relax your guard just because institutions are bullish. The core of surviving on-chain is to always assume the next crash will come and to always leave room for the worst-case scenario. Not many make money in a bull market, and even fewer survive to the next cycle.