Regarding the market outlook for 2026, an interesting cyclical perspective is currently circulating. It is said that a well-known financial figure made a rather bold prediction at the beginning of the year, hinting that this year might face some significant turning points. Some market analysts link this prediction to the Kondratiev wave theory, believing that the market characteristics in 2026 could bear a notable resemblance to the pre-2007 financial crisis conditions.

Let's examine how this logic holds up. According to this cyclical framework: the market in the first half of the year may continue the current momentum. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum might see a good rally, and AI-related assets could also receive sustained attention. During this phase, market sentiment is generally optimistic, and many participants might feel "this time is really different." However, this prosperity could precisely be the prelude to risk.

What about the second half of the year? Under this prediction framework, when certain black swan events (such as geopolitical conflicts or economic data reversals) trigger, debt risks in highly leveraged sectors like commercial real estate could erupt simultaneously. Liquidity would rapidly dry up, and the market could shift from boom to liquidation mode.

If this logic truly unfolds, what should participants do? First, enjoying market opportunities is fine, but never let enthusiasm cloud judgment. Second, closely monitor various political and economic black swan signals; once the trend changes, cash flow becomes the best defensive asset. Lastly, avoid becoming the last bagholder. Truly visionary traders often find the best opportunities amid ruins.

Of course, these are all deductions based on a specific theoretical framework. The actual market trajectory will be influenced by countless variables, and any prediction carries subjectivity. Everyone should make judgments based on their own research.