$RIVER yesterday experienced a double explosion of long and short positions, and the funding rate is still at -0.35%. The underlying reason for this phenomenon is quite clear—first, a violent leverage washout, then the market uses negative funding rates to test the patience of the longs. In the short term, the trend leans towards sideways with a slight bullish bias, but to be honest, this is not a safe bullish trend; it looks more like institutions are using time to buy space.

Looking at the liquidation chart makes it obvious. Yesterday, the area around 21 to 22 below was a massive liquidation zone that had been repeatedly swept, with bright colors and a wide range, indicating that long leverage has been almost completely cleared. The marginal gains further down start to diminish. Conversely, the zone between 27 and 30 above still has continuous liquidation bands, but the intensity is noticeably weaker. It’s not a "vacuum," but definitely not the main target for the whales.

The current pattern is roughly this: the price fluctuates back and forth between 19 and 22. As long as the negative funding rate remains, institutions are waiting for longs to enter. My judgment is that, as longs keep building positions, there might be another sharp dip, but when exactly it will happen depends on the whales’ decision. The key point is that shorts have to keep paying the funding fee, so opening short positions at the current price is not cost-effective.