Tonight at 21:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims data for the week of January 10 will be released. This employment market indicator is becoming a focal point for global capital markets, especially in its increasing influence on gold trends.

Why is this data so important? Simply put, the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace depends on employment data. The market currently predicts this figure will be around 215,000, slightly higher than the previous week's 208,000. If initial jobless claims can stay below 220,000, it indicates that the employment market remains relatively strong, giving the Fed reason to keep rates steady and delay rate cuts. In this scenario, the US dollar and Treasury yields will rise, and the safe-haven appeal of gold will decrease.

Conversely, if the data jumps significantly above 220,000, it signals an increasing risk of recession. Investors will rush into safe-haven assets like gold, pushing gold prices higher.

Currently, gold is fluctuating around $4,600, with bulls and bears engaged in a heated debate over the Fed's rate cut expectations. This data could be the trigger to break the deadlock—if the initial claims are below expectations, gold may face short-term pressure and pull back, with support expected in the $4,500-$4,540 range; if the data exceeds expectations, gold could recover previous highs of $4,650 and even approach $4,700; if the data exactly meets expectations, the market will continue to fluctuate back and forth.