Geopolitical pressures versus corporate holdings support: Short-term test of the $96,000 Bitcoin threshold

Geopolitical uncertainties are suppressing global risk assets. Although Bitcoin rebounded strongly earlier this week, it is now facing a critical support test. As of January 15, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $96,376, up 1.32% in 24 hours, with market focus on whether it can hold the $96,000 technical support level. This macro pressure versus technical support battle is redefining short-term market expectations.

How Geopolitical Tensions Are Transmitting to the Crypto Market

Risk assets are under comprehensive pressure

The escalation of Middle East tensions is dampening global risk appetite. Although U.S. President Trump signaled a possible delay in military action against Iran, easing tensions in the short term and causing oil prices to fall for the first time in six trading days, this easing has not translated into a broad rally in risk assets. Instead, precious metal prices have retreated from highs, Asian stock markets have edged lower, and U.S. stock index futures have weakened due to tech sector pressure.

What does this indicate? Market concerns over geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated; investors remain cautious, waiting for more definitive signals. Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies, viewed as risk assets, are also finding it hard to remain unaffected.

Market Sentiment Complexity

Interestingly, the crypto market previously performed well. The overall market cap increased nearly 5% in a single day, reaching a high of about $3.25 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rebounded to 48, reaching a new high since late 2025. This suggests traders’ risk appetite is recovering, but current sentiment indicators remain neutral to cautious.

In other words, the market is rebounding, but the strength and certainty of the rebound are constrained by geopolitical risks.

Technical and Corporate Holdings Double Support

Technical Significance of Key Support Levels

According to FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, Bitcoin has broken through multiple technical resistance zones, theoretically leaving room to extend toward the $100,000 to $106,000 range. However, the current movement appears more like consolidation after an upward move rather than a new acceleration phase.

This implies:

• $96,000 is a critical support level for this rally
• Above $95,000 is a short-term bottom line
• A break above $96,000 resistance is needed to confirm continued upward momentum

Fundamental Support from Corporate Holdings

Data shows that 192 listed companies hold a total of 1,130,055 BTC, accounting for 5.68% of the total Bitcoin supply, with a total reserve value of approximately $10.259 billion. Among them, Strategy Inc holds 673,783 BTC (59.6% of the total corporate holdings), and MARA Holdings holds 53,250 BTC.

More importantly, over the past six months, corporate digital asset reserves have increased by about 260,000 BTC, averaging an addition of 43,000 BTC per month. During the same period, Bitcoin miners produced only about 82,000 BTC, meaning corporate buy-ins are more than three times the production. This highlights the ongoing accumulation trend of institutional balance sheets, providing strong fundamental support for the market.

From this perspective, even if short-term geopolitical pressures persist, Bitcoin still has underlying support from corporate holdings.

Rotation and Divergence Among Mainstream Coins

It is worth noting that leading tokens are beginning to show divergence. Ethereum remains around $3,300, Solana and BNB are relatively resilient, while XRP and Dogecoin have retraced about 3%. This uneven rotation often indicates short-term profit-taking by traders, as the market awaits new catalysts.

Stablecoins remain stable, with no significant de-pegging of assets like USDT, indicating that liquidity pressures are not yet evident. This is a positive sign.

Key Short-term Technical and Market Outlook

From a combined technical and macro perspective, Bitcoin’s short-term performance will depend on two factors:

• Evolution of geopolitical risks: If tensions escalate further, risk assets may come under renewed pressure; if stability returns, risk appetite could recover.
• Performance of global stock markets: The strength or weakness of U.S. stock indices directly influences overall risk sentiment.

Traders are closely watching whether Bitcoin can continue to hold above $95,000 amid a generally weak global stock environment, to determine whether this rally is a consolidation or a temporary top.

Long-term Policy Outlook

Another noteworthy development is South Korea’s plan to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF in its 2026 economic growth strategy. This will enable domestic investors to directly invest in Bitcoin, aligning South Korea’s market with the U.S. and Hong Kong markets. While such policy support has limited short-term impact, it provides a positive medium-term market signal.

Summary

Bitcoin’s test at the $96,000 level essentially reflects a confrontation between geopolitical pressures and fundamental support. In the short term, the market will oscillate between risk aversion and corporate holdings support. The key points to watch are: whether Bitcoin can hold above $95,000 and whether global stock markets can stabilize. Based on ongoing corporate reserve accumulation and policy support from places like South Korea, the long-term trend remains positive, but patience is needed in the short term as geopolitical risks are digested.