A recent on-chain phenomenon has attracted attention: the addresses of a leading market maker and a stablecoin project transferred nearly 4,000 ETH to exchanges in a short period, while a well-known investment institution withdrew 5,500 ETH. Many people see this data and start to worry about a potential market dump, but this judgment might be too hasty.

Let's first analyze the logic here. Amber, as a top market maker in the industry, and Ethena, as a stablecoin ecosystem project, their transfers of ETH to exchanges are often not for cashing out but for market-making needs, position hedging, or business cooperation. Large transfers in and out may seem significant, but they actually reflect normal chip rotation among institutions — something that happens every day in the market.

More importantly, 4,000 ETH is not a large proportion relative to the total circulating supply of ETH. If institutions really wanted to dump, they would usually transfer small amounts in batches to reduce impact, rather than blatantly operating in one go. These details are often overlooked.

Institutional fund operations and retail investors' emotional fluctuations are two different things. Institutional strategies are usually based on long-term considerations and business needs, not short-term market speculation. As long as the macro market expectations — such as interest rate cuts or liquidity conditions — do not fundamentally break down, the long-term logic of ETH remains valid. Conversely, situations where institutions concentrate large amounts and flood exchanges are the real signals to watch out for.

From another perspective, on-chain fund movements need to be interpreted in conjunction with address identities. Transfers by market makers and project teams are more about business flow rather than market signals. Instead of obsessing over single large transfers repeatedly, it’s more reliable to observe overall fund flow trends. This operation is essentially just routine liquidity circulation, neither bullish nor bearish. Staying rational and holding core assets is the best approach.