Last night, Ethereum surged to 3400, and the entire market was celebrating. However, this morning, a sharp dip brought it back to around 3300. Such fluctuations can indeed be confusing—are they just normal technical retracements building momentum, or a trap for the bulls?

There are two key pieces of news to watch. On one hand, institutional staking, ETF fund inflows, and clearer regulatory frameworks are all supporting the market in the medium to long term. On the other hand, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate that rate cuts are not as urgent, which has put short-term market sentiment under pressure. Meanwhile, JPMorgan predicts that crypto capital inflows will significantly accelerate by 2026, with institutional funds likely to be the main driving force, though this is more of a long-term outlook. In the short term, these hedging signals may cause funds to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands provide a clearer signal. The upper band is at 3422, the lower band at 3023, and the current price remains above the middle band, indicating that the main trend has not yet shifted to a bearish one. Although the MACD indicator is above the zero line, the red histogram is shrinking, suggesting that upward momentum is waning. The RSI stays in the 54-60 range, not yet entering overbought territory, leaving room for further upward movement from a technical standpoint.

Judging from this perspective, if the 3300 level can hold steady, there is still a chance to test higher prices. However, the trading volume's cooperation needs to be monitored further, as it will determine the sustainability of the rebound.