#美联储政策与会议 Recent remarks by Trump about the Federal Reserve Chair have reminded me that every time policy expectations shift, the crypto community starts to experience collective FOMO. Today, I saw that the probability for Hassett dropped from a high level to 42%, while Waller rose to 31%. The comment section is already exploding, with many betting on whether the Fed will go hawkish or dovish next.

But this is the trap — we always think that betting early on policy directions can make quick profits, but in reality, we're gambling on probabilities with the house. I've fallen into this trap myself. At the end of 2022, I was also watching various prediction markets on Polymarket, thinking I saw through the big picture. As soon as the policy shifted, I got cut directly. I later realized that these probability figures are just tools for liquidity mining; large capital inflows and outflows can easily change the probabilities, and retail traders see the changes and follow suit, ending up caught in the middle.

The choice of Federal Reserve Chair indeed influences subsequent policy directions, but the key is: the chair won't be decided until January, and actual policy implementation takes even longer, with many variables along the way. Those who trade based on guessing policy expectations often get wiped out by these uncertainties. My current approach is not to bet on the policy itself but to wait until the policy is actually announced and the market reaction stabilizes before following up. I prefer to be slow and steady to survive longer.

Don’t get caught up in the excitement of policy expectations — that’s where institutions love to harvest.