Ouro continues to be under profit-taking pressure, but technical supports may halt the decline before the NFP

The precious metal is giving up ground for the second consecutive day this Thursday, during the Asian session, retreating towards nightly lows. However, the downward movement remains contained, as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors create a favorable scenario for XAU/USD to recover.

Technical analysis points to key support at US$ 4,425

From a technical perspective, the confluence level at US$ 4,425 warrants attention from traders. This point is formed by the 100-hour Simple Moving Average combined with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward move. If this support is decisively broken, the pair could accelerate towards the US$ 4,400 mark.

The MACD indicator is already positioned below the signal line and in negative territory, with the histogram expanding downward – signaling that the bearish momentum is gaining strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 shows a neutral to weak stance, on a downward trajectory, reinforcing limitations on recovery attempts.

In the opposite direction, any rally would face resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, near US$ 4,450. Meanwhile, holding above the 38.2% mark could stabilize the scenario, even with the Moving Average trending higher.

Mixed sentiment weighs, but geopolitics and Fed support gold

Profit-taking that pressures gold reflects the reduced initial market reaction to recent geopolitical developments. However, tensions have not disappeared: issues around Gaza, the lack of progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and instability in Iran continue to act as demand catalysts for safe-haven assets.

At the same time, expectations of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve remain firm. The market prices in rate cuts in March and possibly another later this year, which pressures the attractiveness of the US dollar and supports the yellow metal without yield.

Economic data released on Wednesday presented a mixed picture. Service sector activity surprised positively in December, with the Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rising from 52.6 to 54.4. However, this optimistic reading was offset by weak signals in the labor market: the private sector added only 41,000 jobs in December (versus 47,000 expected), while job openings fell to 7.146 million in November.

Traders await NFP before more aggressive positioning

In this uncertain scenario, traders are cautious and prefer to wait for the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which will provide crucial information about the US labor market. These data will directly influence expectations about Fed policy and, consequently, the behavior of the dollar and gold.

The release of initial unemployment claims this Thursday may create short-term opportunities, but focus remains on the NFP. Meanwhile, losses in XAU/USD tend to stay contained – not only due to technical supports but also because of the combination of rising geopolitical risks and dovish prospects from the US monetary authority, which continue to favor the precious metal as a safe haven.