USD/CHF: Technical Breakout Signals Emerge as Market Eyes the 100-Day Moving Average

Bullish Indicators Build Momentum in the Currency Pair

The USD/CHF exchange rate has captured attention as technical signals suggest growing upside potential. Trading near 0.7991—its highest point since mid-December—the pair demonstrates renewed strength despite operating within a well-established consolidation band that has persisted since August 2025. Recent CHF news highlights a critical juncture where multiple factors are aligning to support dollar-denominated appreciation.

Technical Setup Favors the Upside

The technical landscape presents a compelling bullish case for USD/CHF. The daily Relative Strength Index has recovered above the 50 midpoint, a significant development that signals momentum is shifting away from oversold extremes. Concurrently, the MACD indicator reveals the main line trading above its signal counterpart, with the histogram expanding into positive territory near zero—a textbook display of gathering momentum strength.

These indicators collectively suggest that buyers are establishing control. However, traders must recognize that the pair remains confined within its broader consolidation zone, which has contained price action throughout the latter part of 2025.

The 100-Day SMA: Next Critical Hurdle

From a practical trading perspective, the 100-day Simple Moving Average sitting around 0.7984 represents the immediate battleground. A convincing break above this technical barrier could unleash a wave of bullish follow-through, potentially targeting the 200-day SMA in the vicinity of 0.8070. This upper threshold coincides with the established consolidation ceiling, making it a zone of significant resistance.

Conversely, should the pair fail to decisively overcome the 100-day SMA, the recent rally risks petering out, with support materializing near 0.7850 at the lower band of the consolidation range.

Economic Backdrop: A Mixed Picture Supporting the USD

Employment figures provided momentum to the greenback. Initial jobless claims reached 208,000 for the week ending January 3, marginally below consensus expectations of 210,000 and an increase from the prior week’s adjusted 200,000. While not dramatically bullish, the data underscored underlying labor market resilience.

More notably, the trade balance showed substantial improvement. The goods and services deficit contracted sharply to $29.4 billion in October—substantially below the $58.9 billion forecast and a marked improvement from September’s $48.1 billion revised shortfall. This data point delivered meaningful support to the USD across the board.

Swiss Inflation Unchanged, Supporting SNB Stability

On the Swiss side of the equation, inflation remained anchored. December’s Consumer Price Index posted no change month-over-month, following November’s 0.2% decline. The year-over-year rate edged marginally to 0.1%, in line with expectations.

This price stability has reinforced market expectations that the Swiss National Bank will maintain its current monetary policy stance without adjustments in the near term. Such expectations effectively eliminate concerns regarding potential rate reductions or a return to negative rates, providing constructive support for the CHF’s fundamental outlook.

What’s Next for USD/CHF Traders

The technical setup presents a classic bull-flag-like pattern within the broader consolidation. The convergence of improved momentum indicators with stable Swiss inflation and supportive US data creates a scenario where the next meaningful move could be directional.

A sustained push through 0.7984 would likely confirm that the upside breakout is genuine, drawing momentum players into the trade and potentially establishing 0.8070 as the new target. The key will be observing whether volume accompanies any breakout attempt—a critical confirmation signal often overlooked in analysis.

For now, USD/CHF remains positioned at an inflection point where technical and fundamental factors are broadly aligned toward further appreciation, contingent upon a successful clearance of intermediate resistance levels.