## Macroeconomic Uncertainty Keeps Bitcoin Trapped in Consolidation Zone: When Will It Regain Its Bullish Momentum?

The first full trading week of 2026 has left a bittersweet taste for Bitcoin holders. Although the cryptocurrency started the year with optimism, it is currently trading around $96.72K, showing sideways performance that contrasts with initial expectations. The price has retreated approximately 2% since the beginning of the year, reflecting the caution dominating the market.

**Macroeconomic Factors Halt Price Rally**

The pressure on Bitcoin is not only coming from the crypto market but also from the global macroeconomic environment. Economic data exceeding expectations has significantly altered interest rate cut expectations. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, notes that this economic strength reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in March, exerting downward pressure on the crypto asset's short-term prices.

Meanwhile, Washington keeps tariff issues on the agenda, generating uncertainty. The United States Supreme Court did not announce its decision on the legal status of proposed tariffs on Friday, leaving markets in a state of anticipation. This lack of clarity adds to doubts about the Fed's monetary policy direction, creating a complex scenario for investors.

**Technical Consolidation: Turning Point or Prolonged Weakness?**

Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance at the $95,000 level, a threshold that has remained as a barrier since the strong sell-off in October, when the cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of $126.08K. The intraday peak on Monday stayed below $94,800, confirming that the New Year rally has lost momentum.

For some analysts, this slowdown has constructive aspects. Brian Vieten, Senior Analyst at Siebert Financial, comments that Bitcoin is consolidating after a prolonged sell-off driven by concerns over tax loss harvesting and speculation about index changes. "That risk has now dissipated, and selling pressure has been significantly reduced," he affirms.

**The Role of Capital Flows and Institutional Market Decisions**

A relief catalyst came when MSCI shelved its plan to exclude companies with digital asset treasuries from its indices. This decision removed a source of uncertainty that had been pressuring prices throughout the week. Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, interprets the current situation as a classic post-rally consolidation, a typical phenomenon in bull cycles.

**Bullish Scenarios Still Valid for Year-End**

Despite the current sideways movement, experts remain optimistic for longer horizons. Butterfill considers that the $200,000 level is achievable by the end of 2026, while Ostrovskis highlights that a sustained break above $95,000 could reactivate systematic buying. "A sustained breach of this level would trigger a reflexive momentum that would bring Bitcoin back to six-figure prices," says the Wintermute analyst.

The current consolidation does not represent fundamental weakness but a breathing period before new macroeconomic factors define the next phase of Bitcoin's price and the overall cryptocurrency market.