Bitcoin enters the institutional era: ETF and corporate treasury holdings surpass expectations, volatility decreases, attracting conservative investors

【CoinPush】The story of Bitcoin is being rewritten. Once, our discussion about Bitcoin centered on the core question of “whether to hold.” Now? The question has shifted to “how much to hold” and “in what way to hold.”

This turning point is not so simple. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs last year, coupled with the rapid adoption of corporate treasury strategies, Bitcoin has quietly crossed a critical threshold—it is no longer just a hot topic among retail investors but is gradually becoming a standard component in institutional portfolios.

The Ark Invest team has provided a striking set of data: the total Bitcoin holdings in ETFs and various digital asset treasuries have reached approximately 12% of the total Bitcoin supply. This figure far exceeds industry expectations. In other words, institutions are adopting Bitcoin more aggressively than previously anticipated.

What does this mean? The market is experiencing a subtle yet profound change. As large institutional funds continue to flow in, Bitcoin’s price volatility is converging. Investors accustomed to rollercoaster price swings may need to adapt to a new rhythm—a more stable and predictable market environment. This trend is expected to continue into next year and even extend to 2026.

From a valuation perspective, Ark Invest’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains unwavering. According to their publicly disclosed valuation model, by 2030, Bitcoin’s price will depend on different market scenarios: approximately $300,000 in a bear market, about $710,000 in a baseline scenario, and around $1,500,000 in a bull market. The core judgment is that, driven by the concept of digital gold and continuous institutional buying, Bitcoin will ultimately anchor within the range of $300,000 to $1,500,000.

Most interestingly, as volatility decreases and drawdowns narrow, Bitcoin is becoming a new asset allocation choice—its appeal rising among investors with limited risk tolerance who do not want to miss out on future growth opportunities. This is no longer a game for the aggressive; it has become a field even conservatives are willing to explore.