2026-01-15 18:25:17

Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset into a strategic allocation.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 marks a watershed moment. It has enabled BTC to enter the universe of compliant, large-scale allocatable assets for the first time. Meanwhile, more and more companies are including Bitcoin in their financial reports, which is no longer news.

An often overlooked data point is: the combined holdings of ETFs and corporate treasuries have already locked in approximately 12% of the global Bitcoin supply.

Don’t underestimate this number. This isn’t retail investors following the trend, but long-term institutional holdings. Once allocated, they are rarely sold off easily.

What does this mean? In the next 1-2 years, Bitcoin’s price will no longer be dominated by retail sentiment but will be determined by two variables: the rate at which institutions absorb Bitcoin and the fixed supply. Supply has a cap, absorption is ongoing, and the logic is very clear.

The market nature is changing. As institutional participation increases, volatility will decrease, and extreme downturns will become less frequent. Bitcoin is gradually shedding its label as a high-risk speculative asset and evolving into a long-term holdable allocation asset. This is a crucial step.

Under the positioning of digital gold and the logic of continuous institutional allocation, my long-term price forecast for Bitcoin is: between and @E5@ by 2030. This is not a casual guess but derived from pathway analysis.

Once an asset enters the allocation logic, it no longer needs to be believed in; it only needs to be included in a certain proportion of the investment portfolio. The real question becomes: when Bitcoin becomes a standard asset, will you still be present?

BTC-0,21%

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StealthDeployer

· 01-15 18:55

In plain terms, institutional bottom fishing has become a certainty, and retail investors' emotional cycles have been completely broken. Locking 12% of the supply sounds okay, but the key point is that this number is still growing rapidly. Institutional holdings are essentially dead holdings; no one will move them around. This is the real price support. Wait, 300,000 to 1,500,000? That's a huge range, kind of misleading. The logic of asset allocation is cold, hard mathematics; no need for faith, it's purely about allocation ratios. The window to get in is getting smaller and smaller; if you wait any longer, there will really be no chance. Do you have to wait until the standard configuration to enter? You should have acted earlier.

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AlphaLeaker

· 01-15 18:54

12% is locked? Retail investors are even more competitive now, while institutions are quietly accumulating chips.

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BuyTheTop

· 01-15 18:51

The 12% locked amount indicates that institutions are really quietly accumulating assets. Retail investors need to stay aligned with this trend.

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BearMarketNoodler

· 01-15 18:48

12% of the holdings are already locked, retail investors are still debating the rise and fall, but the real game rules have already changed.

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ConfusedWhale

· 01-15 18:45

12% is locked, retail investors are still chasing highs and selling lows, this gap...

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GamefiGreenie

· 01-15 18:28

12% is indeed a formidable figure. Once the institutional locking logic is established, retail investors really become less important. The retail strategy of bottom-fishing and top-fishing should have been phased out long ago. Bitcoin is gradually turning into something similar to bonds. Now it's a matter of who can hold on until 2030. Deciding whether to get on board needs careful consideration. This wave is truly different from the past; even if it drops further, it won't fall below the institutional psychological price level.

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LeekCutter

· 01-15 18:26

The 12% figure does have some significance, but will institutions really hold on tightly without letting go... --- That's true, but retail investors are still chasing gains and selling off, so this shift isn't happening overnight. --- 300,000 to 1,500,000? That's such a big range, it's almost meaningless haha. --- The key question remains: when will the funds allocated by institutions truly push prices higher? --- From speculation to allocation... sounds good, but I'm worried that in the end, institutions might also run away. --- The logic is clear, but why didn't they accumulate earlier when prices were low? --- Volatility shrinking? How am I supposed to profit from arbitrage then? It's not exciting enough. --- Locking in at 12% is indeed a psychological bottom, so it won't fall too badly. --- Who monitors the speed at which institutions absorb? How do we know if it's real or fake? --- After hearing this talk about digital gold so many times, I'm just afraid it will swing wildly again.

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