Major Shift in Bitcoin Holder Structure: 400k-Level Large Sell-off Suggests Greater Risks?

Renowned economist Peter Schiff recently sounded the alarm, focusing on an often-overlooked market phenomenon—the generational shift among HODLers. As long-term steadfast investors gradually exit, replaced by inexperienced newcomers entering the market, this seemingly natural handover could sow the seeds of volatility.

What the 400k BTC transfer in October indicates

According to on-chain data, in October, whales and early participants collectively sold over 400,000 BTC. This is more than just a number. This transaction marks a significant transfer of Bitcoin ownership—from seasoned accounts capable of withstanding severe fluctuations to new addresses with weaker psychological resilience. Data from CoinMarketCap confirms the authenticity of this trend.

Even more noteworthy is the on-chain indicator provided by CryptoQuant. Since this wave of selling, Bitcoin has continued to flow into major exchanges, indicating that large holders’ selling pressure has not yet eased. When this over 400k BTC shifts to newcomers, the market may be quietly undergoing a transfer of power.

Why this shift could amplify downside risks

Schiff’s core logic is straightforward: Experienced holders can endure bear markets, while newcomers tend to panic-sell. This is not a personality issue but a psychological one—when accounts are in floating loss, whose mental defenses are more likely to collapse?

Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $95,000, rebounding from the $85,000 level at the end of October. But the risk lies in that if the market drops again, the new group holding this 400k BTC could become the “black swan” creators. Historical data shows that after a large influx of newcomers, the first major correction often triggers a chain reaction of panic.

Market truths revealed by on-chain indicators

Among the current 55,330,440 addresses holding Bitcoin, the concentration of the Top10 addresses is only 5.87%, indicating a relatively high degree of Bitcoin decentralization. But the key question is: How long have these new addresses been holding? According to on-chain wallet age distribution, the proportion of new addresses is rising, which aligns perfectly with Schiff’s concerns.

The sustained high inflow to exchanges further confirms this—big players are selling, newcomers are buying, and then queuing on exchanges waiting for a price rebound. If the rebound falls short of expectations, these participants could become the source of the next wave of selling.

The real dilemma facing the market

This shift is not merely a “wealth redistribution” but a change in the market’s risk structure. Industry analysts have also noticed this phenomenon, believing that this transfer from early adopters to later entrants is consistent with the late-stage characteristics of the crypto market cycle.

However, some voices suggest that institutional investors’ absorption capacity might buffer this impact. But when institutions are also on the sidelines, who will absorb the selling pressure from newcomers?

The takeaway for traders is clear: closely monitor support levels, exchange inflow data, and changes in holding addresses—these are quietly rewriting Bitcoin’s market landscape.