Despite the decline, Bitcoin has just shown its most reliable bullish signal.

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Despite the decline, Bitcoin just displayed its most reliable bullish signal Original Link: For traders who study charts, there is a “golden” pattern they love to see — and Bitcoin has just exhibited it, suggesting a recovery may be on the way.

The rest of the cryptocurrency market, however, did not receive the warning. Over 95% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have recorded losses in the last 24 hours, and the total crypto market cap has fallen to US$ 3.23 trillion. Even Bitcoin is down about 1.3% today, despite the bullish “golden cross” formation visible on the charts.

Meanwhile, traditional markets offered some protection. The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday after two days of decline, driven by strong results from major financial institutions. The Russell 2000 index hit a new all-time high, extending its streak of gains against the S&P 500 to nine consecutive sessions. This is the longest streak since 1990. Risk appetite is not dead.

Bitcoin and the Golden Cross: See what just happened

Bitcoin’s price entered what traders call a “golden cross.” A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. Traders typically see the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average as the classic signal. This indicates that the recent price momentum is surpassing the overall trend. In other words: the market is gaining strength.

Bitcoin has a solid history with this pattern. The September 2023 golden cross led to a 148% increase. September 2024 yielded 64%. The formation from April to August 2025 produced a 35% gain. History doesn’t guarantee anything, but it tends to rhyme.

Yesterday’s confirmation came after Bitcoin recovered from a downtrend that took the price from US$ 125,000 to US$ 80,000 in November. The short-term EMA is now slightly above the long-term line, which, in technical analysis, is considered a bullish setup.

Bitcoin is currently trading below US$ 95,000, down 1.3% on the day, after testing an intraday high near US$ 97,200. Meanwhile, it has gained 5.4% over the past seven days.

Technical Indicators

The Bitcoin (ADX) (Average Directional Index) is at 33.5. The ADX measures the strength of the trend, regardless of direction, on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 25 indicate to traders that momentum is real, not just noise. With 33.5, traders would say Bitcoin has confirmed trend momentum.

The Bitcoin (RSI) (Relative Strength Index) is at 63. The RSI measures buying pressure versus selling pressure, also on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 generally signal overbought conditions. At 63, Bitcoin is in bullish territory, not close to danger zone. There is still room to go up before traders start exiting the market.

The (Squeeze Momentum Indicator) shows that the coin is already rising after a long compression zone. The positive momentum reading suggests the move is tending upward.

The exponential moving average (EMA) setup confirms the trend. The 50-period EMA is above the 200-period EMA. The current BTC price is above both averages. When short-term averages overlap long-term ones, with the price above, traders call this a “bullish alignment.” Usually, this signals that short-term trading momentum favors buyers.

However, there have been brief periods when a crossover occurred and the long-term trend was not confirmed. Bitcoin still needs to consolidate before everyone starts talking about market optimism again. If this crossover is invalidated, the EMA50 will become a weak support.

The US$ 98,000 level proved to be strong resistance, perfectly aligned with a Fibonacci retracement drawn from the all-time high near US$ 126,000 to the recent low. Bitcoin touched this level and retreated. The psychological mark of US$ 100,000 hovers just above, creating what traders call a “double resistance.” Technical and psychological barriers converging at nearly identical prices.

This creates an interesting scenario. Technical indicators point to continued upside. The golden cross is at stake. Trend strength is validated. Momentum is increasing. But the consensus seems to be that this rally has a ceiling somewhere between the current moment and previous highs.

If you are a trader wanting to reconcile these perspectives (technical and sentiment analysis), the strategy appears to be optimistic in the short term, cautious in the long term, and to watch what happens when Bitcoin tests the US$ 100,000 zone.

Key levels to watch

Resistance:

• US$ 98,000 (Fibonacci/immediate)
• US$ 100,000 (psychological)
• US$ 108,757 (next Fibonacci level)

Support:

• US$ 91,353 (strong)
• US$ 89,000 (high-volume low)
• US$ 80,601 (break level)