【ETH Structure Breakdown Analysis: Downtrend Confirmed, Watch for Support Below】#周末行情分析

Ethereum price (3,207) has confirmed a break below the key support zone on the daily chart (3,315-3,320), and is trading below all short-term and medium-term moving averages (MA5-MA30), indicating the failure of the medium-term upward structure and a clear trend reversal to bearish. The current price is testing the long-term support at MA100 (3,195.80), which has become the focal point for short-term bulls and bears.

Core Structure and Bull-Bear Logic:

1. Trend Setting: The price broke below the critical neckline, confirming a top structure. The previous "uptrend-accumulation" pattern has shifted to a "downtrend-rebound" mode. All trading strategies should switch from "buy on dips" to "sell on rebounds."
2. Moving Average System: MA5-MA30 are in a bearish alignment, forming a dense resistance zone above (3,298-3,308). MA50 (3,243) is the immediate resistance for a rebound. MA100 (3,195) is the only potential support reference at present; if it fails, there will be no safe zone below.
3. Key Level Reassessment:
· Resistance: 3,243 (MA50) and 3,300 (former support level lower boundary) form the core resistance zone for rebounds.
· Support: 3,195 (MA100) is the immediate support. If broken, the next target will directly point to the previous trading volume cluster at 3,050-3,100.

Operational Framework and Strategy Deduction:
The current market is in the initial decline phase after the breakdown. The core strategy is "trend-following shorting, abandoning left-side bottom fishing."

Conclusion: ETH daily break is effective, and the trend has turned bearish. Traders should abandon any habitual thinking of "bouncing after a fall," and accept the fact that the market is now dominated by bears. Until the price reclaims above 3,300, all operations should prioritize shorting on rallies and strictly avoid catching falling knives during the decline.

Subscribers can access our detailed analysis of the next core support level (3,050), based on volume profile (VP), as well as detailed strategies for two paths: "downtrend continuation" and "direct decline."

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; please ensure proper risk management and independent decision-making.