New Year’s start, BTC has shown strong momentum, breaking new highs and pushing toward the $97,000 level. This rally has led the market into a classic supply-dense zone — from April to July last year, a group of long-term holders continuously distributed chips near the cycle highs, leaving a deep cost imprint.

The current price position is interesting, stuck within the chip accumulation zone between $93,000 and $110,000. Since the rebound in November last year, the price has repeatedly tested the lower boundary of this region. Every time it attempts to break upward, it encounters new selling pressure. Essentially, this zone is a watershed — whether the correction continues or the bull market persists depends on whether it can break through here.

The market is now focusing on another key level: the short-term holders’ average cost line, around $98,300. This level is very important, representing the average purchase price of recent inflows. If the price can hold this level and continue higher, it indicates that new buyers are absorbing the selling pressure above and maintaining floating profits. Historically, stabilizing above this cost line often signals a transition from consolidation to a trend.

The real question is: are long-term holders still aggressively selling, or have they started to stop? Looking at the change in the total holdings of long-term holders, although the downward trend continues, the speed has clearly slowed down — much milder than the frantic distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 last year. What does this imply? It’s worth pondering.