2025 BTC "Four Seasons" Market Review: How Policy Drivers and Market Expectations Are Shaping Price Movements

2025 is a dramatic year for the Bitcoin market. From the optimistic sentiment at the beginning of the year, to policy shocks in the middle, the peak of the autumn rally, and finally the correction period at year’s end—BTC experienced a full “four seasons.” This article will review the core factors that drove BTC prices throughout the year.

Spring Awakening: Federal Reserve Signals and Political Cycle Resonance (January-February)

At the start of the new year, BTC gradually rose from $93,507 to stabilize above $100,000 by early February. This upward cycle benefited from the convergence of two forces:

Although the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% during its January and February meetings, it signaled “cautious observation and expectations of easing.” Chairman Powell emphasized that a “real inflation progress” was needed before considering rate cuts, while ruling out the possibility of further hikes. The February meeting minutes showed that Fed officials generally viewed current policy as sufficient and expressed concern that Trump’s tariff policies might push inflation higher—however, most still believed that “rate cuts in 2025 remain the main theme.”

Trump returned to the White House on January 20, becoming the first U.S. president in history to be “cryptocurrency-friendly.” This event resonated perfectly with the Fed’s easing expectations, pushing market sentiment to extreme optimism, with institutions and retail investors alike positioning themselves.

Early Summer Test: Tariff Shock and Policy Hesitation (March-April)

At the end of February, Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which officially took effect on March 4. This move changed market expectations—fears of worsening global trade conditions surfaced, leading to a sell-off in risk assets.

The March 23 Fed meeting marked a turning point. While interest rates were maintained, inflation forecasts were raised, and signals of “possibly slowing the easing pace” were released. This directly shattered market expectations of rapid rate cuts. Uncertainty about policy direction combined with tariff risks caused large capital outflows from risk assets into the dollar and cash equivalents. BTC experienced a significant correction during this period.

Golden Autumn: Policy Boosts and Liquidity Turning Point (May-October)

The autumn rally became the most dazzling moment of 2025 for the crypto market. This rise was driven by three major factors:

Establishment of Policy Frameworks: From May to July, the U.S. passed three key bills. On June 17, the Senate approved the (GENIUS Act), establishing the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S. In July, the House passed the (CLARITY Act), including the “Anti-National CBDC Act” and “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.” On July 18, Trump signed the GENIUS Act, marking the transition of U.S. crypto regulation from “gray area” to “legally compliant.”

Fed Resumes Rate Cuts: On September 18, the Fed implemented its first rate cut of the year (25 basis points), lowering the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%. Liquidity was loosened again, making BTC a preferred asset for institutions hedging economic risks. Meanwhile, several central banks globally began including small amounts of BTC in foreign exchange reserves—such as the Dutch Central Bank announcing a $1.5 billion BTC holding—further boosting market confidence.

Double Shelter for Risk Assets: On October 1, the U.S. federal government entered a 43-day shutdown due to budget impasse, creating economic uncertainty. Events like Circle’s IPO (June 5), the Trump family’s WLFI transactions (September 1), and institutional announcements of crypto reserves by DAT companies appeared frequently, forming a coherent market narrative. Amid economic uncertainty and policy support, BTC hit a new all-time high of $124,774 on October 7, maintaining above $110,000 for most of October.

This period was dubbed the “Crypto Autumn”—using the harvest metaphor to depict a feast driven by policy boosts, abundant liquidity, and institutional participation.

Winter of Discontent: Economic Uncertainty and Sentiment Reversal (November-December)

On November 1, BTC was quoted at $109,574, then entered a decline. It hit a low of $84,682 on November 23, a 22.71% drop within the month. Although it mostly oscillated above $90,000 afterward, the upward momentum weakened significantly, and the market widely discussed the arrival of a “bear market.”

During the government shutdown, key economic data was missing, increasing concerns over the U.S. economic fundamentals and future interest rate trends. Although the market previously expected the Fed to continue rate cuts, by December the Fed signaled caution, causing divergence in liquidity outlooks.

On December 10, the Fed implemented its third rate cut of the year, but the market did not cheer—interpreting it as a “recessionary rate cut,” seen as a response to economic downturn rather than a normal cyclical adjustment. Crypto market participants began reassessing global interest rate paths, fiscal health, and other macro variables, shifting toward more conservative asset allocations. Difficulties faced by DAT companies, increased liquidations due to volatility, further deepened downward pressure.

As 2025 ended, the market welcomed the “Christmas rebound” in hopes of a new year—viewed as the “last hope.” Currently, BTC is quoted at $92.84K, down 2.50% in 24 hours.

Year in Review: From “Certainty” to “Uncertainty”

The trajectory of 2025 reflects the deepening linkage between crypto assets and traditional financial markets. The early “certainty” (Trump’s presidency, Fed easing) supported a rapid rise; mid-year policy “oscillations” (tariffs, inflation adjustments, delayed rate cuts) triggered corrections; the autumn “positive gathering” (regulatory frameworks, liquidity shifts, institutional involvement) pushed prices higher; and the year-end “macro confusion” (missing economic data, uncertain employment outlook, policy reversals) led to ongoing stagnation.

Looking ahead to 2026, BTC’s movement will remain closely tied to global central bank policy cycles and U.S. fiscal health. Further refinement of regulatory frameworks and the direction of liquidity supply will continue to be key variables influencing Bitcoin prices.