December 2025 PCE inflation tracking just came in at 2.98% year-over-year. Meanwhile, Q4 2025 GDP tracking finished the week sitting at 2.1%. But here's the catch—the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model doesn't factor in what could be a significant drag. If a government shutdown materializes, analysts estimate it could shave off roughly 1.2 percentage points from growth. That's a meaningful headwind. So while headline numbers look okay on the surface, the real picture might be tighter than it appears. Worth keeping an eye on how this plays out through the quarter.