When the Altcoin Season Index reaches 26: the market frenzy changes face in 2025

The week of March 15, 2025, marked a turning point in the cryptocurrency markets. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index rose to 26, gaining four points in just one day — the most significant movement since January. This is not just a number on a screen: it represents the moment when investors started looking beyond Bitcoin, discovering a landscape of alternative assets finally worthy of attention.

To understand what this market frenzy truly means, one must first grasp what this index measures. It is not about magical forecasts or theoretical analyses, but about something concrete: a measurement of the percentage of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) outperforming Bitcoin. When this indicator rises significantly, it means that capital is no longer solely focused on the king of the crypto market.

The jump from 22 to 26 is no coincidence

After three weeks of relative calm, oscillating between 20 and 22, the index made a decisive leap upward. Analysts do not consider this a temporary fluctuation but rather the beginning of a trend. Historical data shows that movements similar to those at the start of 2021 preceded significant altcoin rallies, although past performance always remains a lesson to be approached with caution.

The current value of 26 positions the market in a “neutral-bullish” territory according to market experts. Still far from the 75 value that would characterize a full “altcoin season” (when 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin for 90 consecutive days), but significantly distant from the very low under-10 values that characterized the 2022-2023 bear market.

How this indicator really works

Transparency is the fundamental value of this tool. CoinMarketCap’s system monitors three distinct time windows: the last 30 days, 90 days, and 365 days. The quarterly period carries more weight, helping to eliminate noise from daily fluctuations while capturing true market trends.

For a cryptocurrency to be considered “outperforming,” it must show a percentage gain (or a lower loss) compared to Bitcoin over the same period. This is crucial to understanding the index: it measures relative performance, not absolute movements. Altcoins could decrease in value yet still be outperforming if their decline is less than Bitcoin’s.

The historical context that explains everything

In 2021, during the most explosive altcoin season of recent market cycles, the index reached sustained values over 75, with peaks near 90. During the subsequent 2022-2023 bear market, it frequently fell below 10, reflecting how Bitcoin protected capital better than altcoins in crisis. The current value of 26 thus represents a significant recovery but remains prudently distant from the historic euphoria peaks.

The concrete numbers revealing market intentions

Bitcoin dominance has fallen from 54.1% a month ago to the current 52.3% — a change of 1.8%, confirming consistency with the rise of the Altcoin Season Index. Meanwhile, CryptoCompare data shows significant volume shifts:

• Ethereum reached 68% of Bitcoin’s trading volume in February, up from 62% in December
• Solana’s volume ratio increased by about 15%
• Cardano saw an 8% increase

These volume movements often precede changes in price performance ratios, suggesting the market is already beginning its rebalancing.

What advanced analysis tools say

Platforms like Glassnode and Santiment provide an additional layer of verification. On-chain data show moderate increases in active addresses and transactions on major altcoin networks, indicating that this movement is not driven by mere speculation but by actual network adoption.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which remains between 45 and 55 (neutral), confirms that this growth is occurring within a measured sentiment context, without the euphoria-panic psychology characterizing extreme movements.

How institutions use this index

According to a February 2025 survey by the Digital Asset Management Firm Association, 72% of institutional crypto funds incorporate the Altcoin Season Index into their allocation decisions. The pattern is predictable: they increase exposure to altcoins when the index stays above 25 for several weeks, and reduce it when it drops below 15.

For retail investors, the lesson is that this index works best as a contextual tool rather than a standalone trading signal. It should always be combined with fundamental project analysis, the actual utility of the token, and adoption metrics.

What academic research observes

The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance has documented a direct correlation between movements of the Altcoin Season Index and on-chain activity across multiple blockchains. This suggests that the increase in the index indeed corresponds to growing network utility, not just price speculation.

The practical significance for 2025

The rise to 26 marks a turning point. It is not a signal of a full altcoin season, but an indication that the market is gradually diversifying attention and capital. It’s the moment when market frenzy changes color: from a maniacal focus on Bitcoin to a more balanced interest across the entire ecosystem.

In the coming weeks, the critical question will be whether this value stabilizes and continues to rise, or falls back. Historically, sustained values above 25 have preceded longer periods of altcoin outperformance. But the “if” always remains: no indicator, no matter how sophisticated, can guarantee future results in markets where uncertainty is the only certainty.