Tom Lee and his team: 2026 — the year of "portfolio cleansing" and great opportunities for crypto

Fundstrat analysts led by Tom Lee paint an interesting portrait of the crypto market in 2026. The main thesis is that the first half will be something like a “general cleanup,” and the second half will open the doors to serious growth. The company’s digital assets head, Sean Farrell, shared details of this strategy in a recent interview.

First Half of 2026: Preparing for “Risk Cleansing”

According to Farrell, from January to June, a so-called “risk cleansing” is expected — an event that will cause increased market volatility. Bitcoin could drop as low as $60,000. It sounds scary, but the analyst calls this zone a “deep value” — an ideal moment for those ready to buy with both hands. At the current price of $90.22K, this means a potential decline of 33%.

In this scenario, Ethereum will also face pressure, falling to $1800–2000. Currently, ETH is trading at $3.01K, which suggests a possible correction of 30–40%. Farrell emphasizes that traditional asset managers see ETH as “small tech company stocks” — they depend on no single thesis, and Ethereum does not disappoint them.

Solana could decrease to $50–75 in the first or second quarter. At the current price of $126.71, this is also a correction, though less significant. However, SOL’s long-term prospects are promising — high throughput, technical upgrades, and potential inflation reduction make it a worthy competitor to Ethereum in the race for market share in the sector of tokenizing real-world assets (RWA).

Second Half: When Everything Changes

When the chaos of the first half is behind us, Farrell expects an “upturn” with improved liquidity, political incentives, and growth driven by AI. This is a period when it’s worth preparing for recovery.

Ethereum will be the driver of this recovery. Farrell set a target ETH price of around $4,500 by the end of the year — meaning that after a potential decline to $1800–2000 in the first half, there will be a recovery of over 100%. This scenario is especially supported by the RWA narrative, which showed a 145% growth in Q3 2025 on an annual basis. It involves attracting higher-quality capital to decentralized finance and increasing the capture of value.

Solana is forecasted to reach $220–260 by year-end. This is nearly a 3x rebound from the $75 achieved in the first half.

Altcoins: a Big Cocktail After the Storm

Altcoins, especially those with reliable tokenomics and strong growth dynamics, will turn out to be “an excellent cocktail” after risk cleansing. Farrell particularly highlights projects related to RWA — in his opinion, they will show the most significant results when ETH surpasses BTC in market leadership.

Long-term Perspective: $1 Million for Bitcoin

Despite fluctuations in 2026, Tom Lee and his team remain long-term bullish. Bitcoin is “scheduled” to reach $1 million, and quality crypto assets have a powerful structural tailwind.

Summary: 2026 is a year of two acts. The first — testing portfolio resilience. The second — harvest time. Those who survive the first half are preparing for serious play in the second.